:: Peak Oil: The End of the Oil Age

June 2008

Dr Hirsch on CNBC predicting $500 a barrel Author of the famous Hirsch report (Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management), which was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published -or rather 'released' in February 2005. The conclusions report was that "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."

The Economist: "this time it is serious" The Economist is predicting (although perhaps the word 'extrapolating' would be more accurate) that change is coming sooner than you might think.

NY Times: Is Doomsday Upon us? Thomas Malthus, a British economist and demographer at the turn of the 19th century, is being recalled to duty. His basic theory was that populations, which grow geometrically, will inevitably outpace food production, which grows arithmetically. Famine would result. The thought has underlain doomsday scenarios both real and imagined, from the Great Irish Famine of 1845 to the Population Bomb of 1968.

The Peak Oil secret is starting to reach the masses. Photographed in Paris Metro station on 21st June.

May 2008

It is with much sadness that an oil and food crisis are unfolding in a similar manner as I have been predicting for the past three years. The Peak Oil documentary that is available through this site "If the Oil Runs Out' explored a scenario of daily rising oil prices and the impact on middle America, which was probably the most accurate depiction I have seen to date. It shows a scenario of soaring oil prices while people and businesses are desperately trying to hold on to 'business as usual'. Eventually, gas pumps are running dry, trucking companies go out of business, people are putting up for sale their 4x4's after loosing their job and things go from bad to worse. The documentary has a happy end, which in the real world is highly unlikely. The number of optimists thinking that high oil prices will provide an incentive to further boost production or encourage the (sudden) development and implementation of alternatives is certainly on the decrease (they are finally coming to their senses). What is next? No one knows, but my guess is that we are entering a protracted phase of transition - possibly lasting a few years - to much darker times and we can only hope for the best. Enjoy life while you still can.

Oil: A global crisis The $200 a barrel predictions are now becoming increasingly common in the mass media. People are quickly catching on to the enfolding crisis. Many are still convinced the answer lies in addressing supply. However, the most misunderstood is the law of exponential growth, which is rarely ever mentioned. Even if global economic growth and demand for oil contracts, as long as it is positive it is exponential. As long as the world population grows, demand for food will remain exponential. Oil production growth -if any- is linear. And this fundamental discrepancy is the basis of our problem.

Saudi oil output rise would not solve US Problems Bush said on Saturday that a hike in oil output by Saudi Arabia would not solve American energy problems. Finally some wise words, except the part where he thinks that aggressively expanding domestic exploration will solve the problem.

Yet another Oil Record Prices only seem to be on the up, and it is hardly making any headlines anymore. Whether or not this is the beginning of the end and the Peak Oil Crisis is already truly unfolding remains to be seen. I stick with my 2011-2012 estimate before things really start getting out of hand, but no one knows for sure. The recent price rises are of the 'paper barrel' and not so much yet the 'liquid barrel', driven by commodity speculators. Investors are surely taking notice, and some observe that 'you cannot go wrong with oil'.

Shell Execs briefed on Peak Oil in 1956 When did Shell executives first learn that the world would one day face the moment of peak oil, known to many as Hubbert’s Peak? Answer: as far back as 1956 when M. King Hubbert delivered his seminal speech to Shell employees predicting the day when oil reserves would begin to decline.

OPEC monthly report

March 2008

The Independent: We can't cling to crude: we should leave oil before it leaves us Little new here for those already well informed, but the fact that this article appeared in the Saturday issue of a leading UK newspaper is interesting to say the least. Although we may not have yet fully reached global peak oil, the fact that more and more people are talking about it is perhaps the first sign of a change in public opinion, possibly resulting in more speculative buying on the oil markets and pushing prices up even further.

White House: No good answer to energy ills That should come as no surprise because a) they have simply ignored all warning signs for the last few decades and b) it is too late now. This link is from the NYMEX commodity board, which tend to disappear after some time. Therefore, here is the full text:

WASHINGTON, Mar 13, 2008 (UPI via COMTEX) -- No single answer is satisfactory for U.S. consumers watching gasoline prices rise at the pump and energy bills climb, a White House spokesman said Thursday.

"From our perspective, what we need to do is keep this economy growing and focus on rising wages and job growth so that people can deal with the reality of higher oil prices," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said during a news briefing.

The Bush administration is concerned about low-income Americans that use a higher proportion of their income to pay for energy, he said. Programs such as the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance Program is designed to help qualifying people cope with higher prices.

"(But) our focus has to be on growing the U.S. economy, growing wages so that people can deal with these (higher energy costs)," Fratto said, "because it is going to take a long time to deal with changes and transformations in the energy markets."

Time to get back into oil This article was published in February and I was going to post it here that month. However, for various reasons I didn't get the chance. Shame, now that oil is breaching even the $110 mark. However, the article makes some interesting notes about market timing. Oil prices may retreat again temporarily, which will be the time to invest again.

Investing in Energy Although now may not be the right time to buy into oil or gold (you may consider and hope for a temporary future dip), here is an interesting source for buying into Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). Although when things get really tough, you may be better off holding actual physical gold & silver. We are not in any way associated with this site, which looks a little flashy, but these financial guys have been around for a while and are a decent source of information.

January 2008

Learning survival lessons from Russia Some excellent information and great lessons that may possibly be very useful when taking into consideration all peak oil survival strategies. First published on another peak oil website (sorry Matt). It confirms the potential problems you may encounter if you are going for the 'loner strategy', hoping to live off the land somewhere remotely, hidden away from others.

"$100 Oil" headline in The Times For the first time ever, record oil prices have made it to the front page as lead article in the printed publication of one of the UK's leading newspapers The Times, reading "Oil at $100 threatens to choke economy". Meanwhile, there is little evidence that people are concerned. The Chrismast sales shoppers continue to fill the parking garages, and business continues as usual. I can only hope that we still have a small time window in which to reap the benefits of a fossil fuel world, enjoying our families and life as we know it. I am growing more doubtful though how long that time window is going to be.

Saudi Arabia delaying new projects Saudi Arabia is considered to be the only oil producing nation in the world that has any spare capacity left, but the national oil company Aramco have just announced that it is delaying the start of production of a new field, putting into question Saudi's ability to continue to meet increased world demand.

November 2007

Oil Bosses warning on oil output Global Oil Production will never exceed 100 million barrels per day.

October 2007

China's drive for wealth means end of our low-carbon dreams It is not in our power to stop the Chinese locomotive; we should leave our fantasies behind, acknowledge that carbon emissions and oil consumption will continue to grow and plan accordingly.

Has World Oil Peaked? Monthly report (PDF) concluding that it is still too early to tell whether or not global production has peaked.

Review of DVD 'A Crude Awakening / The Oil Crash I had high hopes and expectations for this DVD documentary by Basil Gelpe and Ray McCormack, based on other reviews and the awards it has won. Having been involved in Peak Oil for almost three years now and having seen all other documentaries, this is by far the least-inspiring and I struggled to stay awake. The DVD disc itself has written on it 'We are running out and we don't have a plan', which appears to be evidence that the producers did not quite grasp the concept of Peak Oil, or if they did this is an incorrect statement to communicate to the public. It is of course not the oil running out that is the problem, it is an issue of lack of further growth followed by a production decline. The documentary is an incoherent collection of a series of black & white archive material and interviews with experts, some which fail to come across as very credible. Although I have a lot of respect for Matt Savinar's work (he runs the number one website on Peak Oil) his appearance in a green navy-like sweater behind shelves stacked with survival food & kits could easily erode his credibility to the un-initiated. The documentary fails to get to the point across quickly, and lacks the power and persuasion that documentaries like for example Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth or Crude Impact exhibit. I think most people are quite aware of the importance of oil to our society, and spending 30+ minutes highlighting it with historical footage and artistic shots is hardly inspiring in my view. This is a very important and serious subject, and I have yet to find a documentary that gets the point across in an extremely simply and powerful way, and that you can't wait to show to your family and friends.

Woodpellet Heating & Peak Oil This is probably the first time that I see a company using Peak Oil to highlight a product's advantages. Wood pellets are a cheap alternative to gas, oil and other fuels to heat your house. The only problem is that you still depend on a truck delivering it to your house once a year and you still depend on the factories making these pellets, as well as regular maintenance of the pellet burner. Still something to consider though.

September 2007

Boeing 747 to fly on biofuel in 2008 Air New Zealand has announced it will carry out the first commercial trial of a bio-fuelled Boeing 747. Of course, one of the problems with mass-producing bio-fuels from conventional crops is that it competes with food crops for arable land. Furthermore, even if airlines manage to achieve a high degree of autonomy by taking control of their energy source, they cannot operate and function in isolation. As a whole, the airline industry will continue to rely on the vast surrounding fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure for support and continued economic prosperity and stability.

$100 oil anyone? This article, calling the peak-oil crowd that "merry band of doomsters", notes that $100+ a barrel is now no longer more far fetched than oil at $50. The author concludes this in light of experts' reports at the annual ASPO conference and oil's recent historical record prices.

Oil may average $100 in 2007 (Q4) Oil may average $100 in the fourth quarter of 2007, as demand outpaces supply, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's chief economist said.

Shell ex-CEO: "Sleepwalking into a Crisis" Peak Oil is slowly penetrating the global consciousness. Oil is approaching $82 a barrel, banks are in crisis, the public is loosing confidence and ice caps are melting at alarming rates. The clocks going back an hour in just a month's time is just an echo of the darker times ahead.

Alan Greenspan's claim that the Iraq war is about oil U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Sunday rejected former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's statement that the Iraq war "is largely about oil."

ASPO Conference Cork The annual ASPO conference is starting on Monday. A DVD of professional broadcast quality will be available for 125 Euros.

Start of a banking crisis? Thousands of nervous customers waited for hours outside branches of Northern Rock, Britain's fifth largest mortgage bank, on Saturday desperate to withdraw savings after it was forced to seek emergency funds to weather the global credit crunch

Oil Hits New Records It is unclear if record oil prices are the clearest sign yet that the world is fast approaching peak oil, or if speculation and and non-fundamental factors are to blame.

August 2007

OPEC's 11th September meeting OPEC is unlikely to raise oil production at the meeting in Vienna, despite oil prices continuing their recent surge.

U.S. Envoy: Middle East turmoil could cause World War Upheaval in the Middle East and Islamic civilisation could cause another world war, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations was quoted as saying in an Austrian newspaper interview published on Monday

The Economics of Oil Very interesting article by a London based portfolio manager about the economics of oil. If you have some background in (micro) economics, it will make easier reading. If not, it is still a good piece to read to have some more understanding of the underlying fundamentals of oil prices and demand.

The 1929 Stock Market Crash and Depression If you read this article about the stock market crash that fueled the 1930's Depression, there are some striking parallels with current situation America is currently in: an over-inflated stock market, misplaced trust in shares, highly mortgaged homes and several interest rate rises. Add to this the looming energy crisis, and we have a recipe for a disaster that may make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park.

Peak Bread Niall Ferguson from the Daily Telegraph warns us about future food shortages, and makes a very important observation about how the disparity between exponential population growth versus only linear food crops growth means we are now approaching a new era of food scarcity and misery.

An Eco-System of One's Own This May article in Vanity Fair will be an eye-opener for many, showing the global impact and resource wastage of the average American and other Westerner's routines. I was unable to link to the original article, so here is the PDF file (apologies to Vanity Fair). It makes one realize again how difficult or impossible it will be to change our way of life before change will be forced upon us...

July 2007

ASPO Conference 2007 This years Annual International ASPO conference is shaping up to be a truly significant event and for a number of reasons. Not least of which is that this will be the first time Ireland will host the event, home to ASPO's founder, Dr. Colin Campbell. And September is a wonderful time of year to visit the Emerald Isle.

International Energy Agency predicts trouble ahead In a stunning interview for the French Le Monde, Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (i.e. the intergovernmental body created after the oil shocks of the 70s to coordinate the West's reaction to energy crises) effectively says that peak oil is just around the corner, and that without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015.

This is the second time in just a few weeks that a top figure discusses in a frank interview the enormous energy challenges that the world is facing. In June (see below), Shell's CEO Jeroen van der Veer made similar observations. In the interview, Birol's admittance that "biofuels are not based on any kind of rationality", sounds all too eerily familiar.

Coal-to-Coal: America's energy solution? In a recent study published by JP Morgan, it was estimated that it would take the construction of 70 to 100 plants using Coal-to-Gas (CTL) technology to substitute all the oil currently being imported by the USA from OPEC. The analysis also indicated that the average per-barrel production cost for such plants would be in the area of $48, including the cost of carbon dioxide removal; a key environmental consideration given the fact that a standard CTL plant produces about 2.5-times the carbon dioxide that a standard refinery puts out.

Is the financial world catching onto Peak Oil? Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst Greg Silberman discusses gold stocks versus oil stocks and is surprisingly a believer in Peak Oil. He writes: "“I’m a believer in the Commodity Super-cycle and in Peak Oil but gosh, just tell me what (and when) I should be buying!” Is the financial world slowly catching on?

City ploughing its money into farmland In the UK, a great battle is under way to own a piece of the countryside. Investors see farmland as a potential hedge in world gripped by food price inflation. Indeed, farmland's price rises - across the world - are likely to accelerate once a Peak Oil crisis arrives and food production falters.

June 2007

Oil Giants admit to PEAK OIL!! ExxonMobil and Shell have warned the world of a pending energy crisis, "which cannot be solved by renewables." In an interview with The Times, CEO Jeroen van der Veer calls for a 'reality check' and greater investment in energy efficiency. He says that "the world is blinding itself to the reality of its energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power. Contrary to public perceptions, renewable energy is not the silver bullet that will soon solve all our problems."

Likewise, ExxonMobil's CEO Tillerson points to a widespread failure by policymakers to understand the extent to which the aspirations of people in developing countries are fuelling growth in demand for energy. He says that world energy demand would rise by 45 per cent by 2030, and fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – were the only energy sources of sufficient size, adaptability and affordability to meet the world’s needs.

Comment by Editor: Shell's CEO Van de Veer appears to have understood the Peak Oil problems very well and has skillfully brought them to the public eye. Indeed, his proposition to put more emphasis on fuel efficiency is one step in the right direction. It is an outrage that in this day and age, the average American car has the same or even worse fuel efficiency than one or two decades ago. Only a few months ago, the fuel gauge of the Chevrolet that I rented was visibly and steadily decreasing while only just leaving the airport car park! Compare that to the VW Tdi I rented a few days ago, whose fuel gauge refused to move for the first part of the trip before decreasing by about 1/10th of an inch after driving 100 miles or so while the onboard trip computer showed an average mpg of around 60 (US) / 71 (UK).

From Peak Oil to Dark Age (Business Week) Peak Oil is gaining momentum in the press....

Food Price rises force a cut in biofuels Finally some evidence and admittance by a national government that biofuels aren't the answer to the world's energy problems. China's communist rulers have now announced a moratorium on the production of ethanol from corn and other food crops, at the very time that Western leaders are rushing to embrace alternative food-based fuel technology. It reflects the growing reality that food-based alternative fuel is far more expensive both economically and environmentally than Western politicians are likely to admit.

OPEC warning on Biofuels OPEC have said that it may cut long-term investment to expand oil production capacity because of recent trends of countries to switch more towards biofuels. OPEC state that otherwise it could have "too much excess idle capacity"!...

Biofuels will struggle to provide the additional energy requirements of growing economies, demand and consumption patterns, especially in light of the marginal net energy value they deliver at the expensive of soil and other natural resources. It is even more delusional of OPEC to conclude that biofuels will replace current declines in conventional oil AND provide excess energy capacity to the point where it could threaten the conventional oil supply market. It almost appears more and more that OPEC are covering up their inability to produce 'oil on demand'. If in the future they are unable to meet demand, they can just blame it on the biofuels. It doesn't take much to work out that even in the best case scenario, taking into account biofuels growth and world energy demand, OPEC will need to produce a lot more oil to balance supply & demand to avoid a huge shock.

World Spare Oil Capacity Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Petroleum Review, talks with GPM's Julian Darley about the latest spare capacity estimates for the Middle East and the world (audio)

The Challenge of Peak Oil Let's start June with a superb article by Richard Heinberg, which really captures the essence of Peak Oil and the challenges that lie ahead. He ends the article with "Ecological thinkers have been proposing transformations along these lines for decades. Now such proposals are no longer just good ideas; they are survival strategies. Nature has given us two options: adapt or die. The sooner we choose the former path, the better the outcome"

Zimbabwe in crisis This African country will face collapse within 6 months. It is a good example what the dire consequences are of a country in crisis, and what we may see during a future peak oil crisis when production collapses gain momentum.

ASPO June Newsletter (PDF) Includes interesting part questioning why Peak Oil is politically incorrect. It starts with "Don't you feel that at times that the issue of Peak Oil is not only ignored by the media but that it is, actually, politically incorrect?" Google trends show not only that there is more interest in Global Warming than Peak Oil, but also that Global Warming is gaining in popularity whereas the trend in Peak Oil is opposite. It also concludes that apparently, most people cannot focus their minds at the same time on two issues that are perceived as different and unrelated.

Blowing Green Smoke Another excellent article by the legendary peak oil author James Howard Kunstler.

May 2007

Peak Oil Thriller / Novel Written by Alex Scarrow, this new book (release July) is probably more of a sneak preview of events to come than a novel when the world faces energy starvation. Civilization is more fragile than you think. Use the link to watch the frightening trailer.

The Hirsch Report Part II The first Hirsch report was a very excellent and comprehensive study into the Peaking of oil and its consequences, specifically for the USA. This second report is a follow up and very worthwhile to read. It sums up and re-iterates the problems of peaking very well. Prof Hirsch reminds us how quickly oil wells, without much notice, can peak. The proposed mitigation strategies, based on an analysis for the US Department of Energy, considering tar sands, coal liquefaction, enhanced oil recovery and gas-to-liquids are very questionable though and crucially fail to address the EROI (Energy Return on Energy Invested). These "technologies" are very energy intensive with only marginal net energy values and very serious environmental problems.

Are we in the transition period to the defining Peak Oil moment? Absent of any panic, the most likely scenario is probably one of gradual change, where business carries on as usual. The world has great momentum, but once it stops, it stops......

$4 a gallon, and America is driving more....Do you know of any other product or resource of which more is consumed despite price rises? In economics this is called 'reverse price elasticity'. This article proposes a fuel tax.

Preparing for Peak Oil According to the GAO (Government Accountability Office), "Many studies indicate that oil production will peak between now and 2040." Eleven of the 20 studies referred to in the report show peak oil production occurring now.

Apr 2007

China will overtake America this year as world's biggest green house gas emitter In a seismic shift for the world, China will overtake the United States as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases this year, far earlier than thought, which is an ominous sign that the global peak date may be moving forward. Of course, the Chinese feel they should be entirely free to pursue economic growth, just as western countries have done for 200 years. They also still have much lower oil consumption and carbon emissions in per capita terms than do western nations. However, with close to 1.5 billion inhabitants, ambitions to match living standards of the US are simply not feasible in terms of our resource base, even absent Peak Oil.

Virgin Atlantic orders new & more fuel efficient Boeing aircraft, that may eventually run on bio-fuels. Virgin Atlantic's Richard Branson definitely has long-term vision by having placed an order of 43 new 787 Boeing Dreamliner aircraft, which will be 27% more fuel efficient than their current Airbus aircraft. Virgin also confirmed that it is joining with Boeing and the US engine manufacturer General Electric in a project to develop a new generation of bio-fuels to power future aircraft. The aim is to demonstrate the technology on a Boeing 747 jumbo next year. Jim McNerney, the Boeing chairman, said that a number of options were being looked at for producing the fuel, from soya beans and algae to grain and "cellulosic" crops such as prairie grass. Until now, it had not been thought feasible to produce an alternative aviation fuel, because conventional fuels such as ethanol freeze at altitudes higher than 15,000 feet. Sir Richard predicted a "major breakthrough" in the technology in the next two to three years, which could make bio-powered aircraft a commercial reality by the time its 787s start to be delivered in 2011.

Of course, even if Virgin succeeds by 2011 running their entire aircraft fleet on high percentage biofuel blends, the question remains if people are going to have a need and the money to travel, once we pass global Peak Production, as economies start to falter. Nevertheless, change may be gradual and a strategy of 'sustained and profitable retreat' may indeed pay-off, while most other airlines will struggle to survive. Even after an oil and economic crash, there will continue to be people with money to spend. In addition, an airline such as Virgin relies heavily on a supporting infrastructure, around their route network, that will continue to depend for the most part on fossil fuels.

Five Geopolitical Feedback-loops in Peak Oil

Mar 2007

Full Living Planet Report ESSENTIAL reading for Peak Oil Survival Strategists. The ecological debtor and creditor country map is a useful guide for relocation purposed in light of the coming crisis.

Living Planet Report "How we can live well within the means of one planet? This is the main research question of the 21st century," says Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, Executive Director of Global Footprint Network, The question is a primary focus of this year's Living Planet Report.

Report: US Government needs plan for oil peak The U.S. government is in need of a strategy to minimize potentially dire economic consequences after worldwide oil production peaks and begins to decline, the investigative arm of Congress said Thursday.

Jan 2007

Oil at $35? Many have said, including myself, that when we approach peak oil we will see oil prices accelerating upwards. The recent decline in oil prices has come as a shock to many of the peak oil analysts, but is not all that surprising. The problem with oil prices is that they are in no way a reflection of the medium and long term supply and demand fundamentals. Oil prices are largely determined by speculation (the illiquid barrel) and Wall Street can only look ahead a few months, maybe a year at most, and so they base their 'wisdom' on a mild winter, hurricane activity and arbitrary predictions in demand. As long as there is spare capacity in the world, even if it is close to zero, oil prices could fluctuate wildly, with actual demand and supply setting a price floor. Unfortunately, lower oil prices fail to provide the much needed confirmation for many that peak oil is as real as death and taxes, and business-as-usual will carry on. It is almost like the calm before the storm, with the world keeping and accelerating its momentum and setting ourselves up for an even deeper crisis once we do run out of spare capacity and we approach the relentless slope on the other side of the curve.

Where to live when the Peak Oil Crisis unfolds Very interesting article discussing the advantages and disadvantages of living near a city or living in isolation before and during a Peak Oil Crisis.

Indeed, only a very few will succeed - under the best of circumstances - in a self sufficient lifestyle in an isolated retreat. Halfway measures won't do, but we do not really know what the full measures are, and in this lies the paradox. The self-sufficient strategy relies on some very extensive and informed planning, requiring man-on-the-moon skills, with a large dosage of luck. Your success will probably depend on remaining undiscovered, and the hardships placed upon you and your family will be unprecedented, and that is just one aspect.

One of the most popular peak oil websites recently published some very extensive 'disaster preparation' plans in a series. It is difficult to understand for me why someone that appears to understand Peak Oil so well decided to put these articles on his website, when these preparations all have severely limited value in the real world of Peak Oil. All of these plans were based on having to survive for between 2-10 days or so in case of hurricanes, earthquakes, virus outbreaks etc. In other words, once the threat subsides and rebuilding work starts, life goes on again, and everyone will get back again on their feet, unlike Peak Oil. Another published article on the same website seemed to encourage everyone to pack a backpack and venture out, giving a (false) romantic impression that during the future crisis we will live like nomads, venturing out into the 'open' and running into other like-minded survivalists / backpackers, who will point us in the right direction of a friendly farmer in the next village before they make their separate ways, while singing the sound-of-music songs. I could hardly imagine such a scenario, and just the thought of being on the road for many years or even months - especially with a family-, not knowing what danger is around the next corner, while being hungry and cold, just doesn't seem like a life worth living. Admittedly, it is difficult to come up with a strategy that has a good chance of success and will fit most scenarios, as the scope and timing of the crisis are unknown, but there must be something better than that. After two years of study on the subject, my conclusion remains that we need to be in or migrate to a small community (not the suburb type of community where you can leave your doors unlocked and help out your neighbors by buying their kid's scout cookies), preferably in a part of the world that will be relatively immune to the consequences of peak oil....God bless.

Dec 2006

Peak Oil Survival / Solutions Some excellent ideas here. As far as debt and mortgages are concerned, many believe the best thing to do is pay them off more quickly. However, one must realize that even during a severe crisis, banks and financial institutions will continue to exist for a while and if you cannot make your mortgage payments - even if you only have a year left on it - you will loose the house. This is exactly what happened during the Great Depression. So my advice is to either have a fixed rate 100% mortgage (or close to it) with no or little capital repayments, and sufficient cash to keep payments up, or have no mortgage. Nothing in between. Equally important is to know whether your house is in the right place to start with. No point in having your city apartment mortgage paid off when its value will be reduced to anywhere between null and zero....

Living more simply and sustainably The Mucuxi people are a prime example of how a group can live simply and sustainably and they appear sufficiently isolated geographically to perhaps remain immune to a peak oil crisis. Perhaps we can learn a great deal from them.

Nov 2006

Sneak Preview of a Post Oil Era The majority of us will struggle even trying to imagine what life will be like after transitioning to a post oil era. Without our everyday luxuries and conveniences, just trying to survive will be one of the hardest realities we will have to cope with. It may not be all that bad though........

This link has some very interesting previews of an episode of Worlds Apart. Stripped of their material possessions and hectic schedules, the Palmer family find themselves undergoing a dramatic transformation while developing deep bonds and respect for people whose drastically different lifestyle can trace its roots back thousands of years. Especially the preview 'Saying Goodbye' is touching and sheds a different light onto Peak Oil Survival.

NDVI as an Indicator of Drought for Strategic Relocation purposes Satellite remote sensors can quantify what fraction of the photosynthetically active radiation is absorbed by vegetation. The NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) value can be averaged over time to establish the "normal" growing conditions for the vegetation in a given region for a given time of the year and can be used to characterize the health of the vegetation there, relative to the norm.

Researchers at NASA and NOAA have two decades of NDVI data over the entire globe. Comparing this month’s or this year’s NDVI data with the 20-year average reveals whether the productivity in a given region is typical, or whether the plant growth is significantly more or less productive. Periods of reduced plant growth are due to a lack of precipitation or exceptionally cold temperatures (which can delay or cut short the growing season) and clouds.

Oct 2006

Bush's alleged 100,000 acre hideway in Paraguay Is President Bush preparing robustly for a Post-Oil Era? Paraguay happened to rank in the top 35 countries of desirability in my Peak Oil Survival Guide, based on arable land per capita, energy self sufficiency (100%), while the country has one of the largest underground water reserves (Guarani Aquifer).

Map of Tranquility in England. This map of England is a very interesting one from a Peak Oil Survival point of view, for those focusing on this part of the world. The top five elements of tranquility used for the map were a natural landscape, birdsong, the ability to experience peace and quiet, woodland and seeing the stars. It is not difficult to see the parallel with Peak Oil Strategic Relocation.

Oil Price to stay between $50-$75 (PDF file) into 2007 Thorough analysis from Peak Oil Organization Netherlands, showing peak date beyond 2012.

Amish show how the modern world has forgotten ancient virtues It is very easy to see the relevance of this article with peak oil. The way of life of the Amish is admirable and they will be best prepared for a post-oil era.

World moves into ecological overdraft today Humanity slides into the red today and begins racking up an ecological overdraft driven by unsustainable exploitation of the world's resources, according to a report by the sustainable development organisation Global Footprint Network. For North Americans the "ecological footprint" - the land and water a person needs to sustain their lifestyle - is 9.6 hectares (23.7 acres). For the typical African it is 1.4 hectares.

China Imports 95.8 million tons of crude in first 8 months

Richard Heinberg talks about Peak Oil (video)

It starts to look like a plateau Data from EIA shows that the world supplies of oil were down with an average of 0,18 Mb/d for the 7 first months of 2006 relative to the same period of 2005, and that the supplies of regular oil and lease condensate so far still had a top back in December 2005.

UK to become net energy importer by 2007

Runaway costs imperil Canada's Oil Sands hopes

Sep 2006

Preparing for a crash Some excellent ideas and views on Peak Oil Survival

Peak Oil in 2008?

Iran warns of oil price hike if sanctions imposed

Nigeria, China sign agreement on ethanol production

Aug 2006

Soaring Natural Resource Prices

Oil Sands: Burning Energy to Produce it

July 2006

Tracking Crude Oil Flows

ASPO Conference 5 ITALY Notes from the ASPO July conference in Rimini.

Peak Oil and Aviation ASPO and Dr Colin Campbell have been so kind as to support the article I wrote for an international Aviation magazine and refer to it in their ASPO June Newsletter. Email me if you wish to have a PDF copy of this article.

Oil industry hits peak production Leading expert Bakhtiari has warned that the oil industry is reaching peak production. Perhaps many of the peak date predictions have all been too conservative and we are in the first phase of the transition to an uncertain future.

June 2006

Clinton acknowledges Peak Oil

Air Transport Association to tackle oil price challenge at annual meeting

Assessing offer to Iran

No techo-fixed for Peak Oil

May 2006

Iran will replace dollar for euro as oil currency

Energy costs, competition, financial woes reshaping airline industry

Chavez to offer oil to Europe's poor

Venezuela: A sudden plunge in production

A Battle for oil could set the world aflame

Fuel, Fertilizer prices expected to keep climbing

April 2006

Peak Oil on our doorsteps Evidence is emerging that global oil production is about to peak

China Death Threat for Oil theft! That just about sums up the world's insane addiction to oil

Branson to put $400 million into making bio-fuels

Peak Oil and Investments

New York City best place to be when oil hits $100 Cities with an excellent transportation system in place are attractive when according to a survey. But be aware, in the medium or long term, you are probably best off far away from population concentrations.

March 2006

Can Peak Oil make you rich? Does it matter?

US Spends its ways to 28 Eiffel Towers: made out of pure gold

The US - Venezuela Energy Showdown

The Peak Oil Crisis: Rationing by Price

CNN Documentary on Oil Crisis

NY Times: Peak Oil almost certainly correct

China and India to test oil demand with price reform China & India consumers will start to suffer as government announces phasing out of fuel subsidies due to high prices.

February 2006

World Oil Peak Passed on 16 December 2005: watch the crisis unfold Don't be fooled by a temporary lull in oil price rises. The longer an event fails to happen, the easier it is to assume it is not, while odds of occurrence rise (S.Marner).

James Lovelock: It is too late to save civilization as we know it.

Chaves threatens to cut off oil exports to US

Peak Oil Newsletter 1st Quarter 2006 (PDF)

Is there a cure for oil addiction?

Bush says US must kick oil habit US government has drawn up plans to break foreign oil dependency, but it's probably too little too late.

Bush bangs out hollow message on an oil can

US Savings rate sinks to lowest rate since the Great Depression This key economic indicator, in combination with high oil prices and inflation, may be the first sign that of real trouble ahead.

January 2006

Ready for $262 a barrel? Conclusion of some of the world's most successful investors

Spoonful of Methanol will help the world go around Japanese scientists have revealed a revolutionary fuel cell that will transform the the global effort to commercialize these cells. However, there are serious doubts about the rate at which the technology can be commercialized, and realistically this is still 20 years away, which once again shows that nothing can replace fossil fuels in time at the scale required to avert a very deep global crisis.

DARK SECRET: What they don't want you to know about the coming Oil Crisis Peak Oil is hitting the mainstream, which is a disturbing & chilling reality check. Highly regarded British national newspaper the Independent has today issued an Extra report stating that it's time to face the fact that the supplies we so depend on are going to run out. It says:

"The most basic of foundations of our assumption of future economic well-being is rotten. Our society is in a state of collective denial that has no precedent in history"

Oil Prices may hit $100 within near-future

The Year ahead, by Jim Kunstler

ASPO January letter (PDF)

Grid Alert in Britain

2005

Profound shift in global energy system

A Risk of Total Collapse It is a genuine possibility

Saudi plans $26 billion 'economic city' This project is part of Saudi's effort to take advantage of the new oil boom

CNN covers Peak Oil

Rep. offers 'Man on the Moon' problem solving to combat oil decline

Where's the Oil Money?

ASPO December Newsletter (pdf)