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June 2008
Dr Hirsch on CNBC predicting $500 a barrel Author of the famous
Hirsch report (Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk
Management), which was created by request for the US Department of Energy and
published -or rather 'released' in February 2005. The conclusions report was
that "The
peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel
prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely
mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.
Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have
substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of
peaking."
The Economist: "this time it is serious" The Economist is predicting
(although perhaps the word 'extrapolating' would be more accurate) that change
is coming sooner than you might think.
NY Times: Is Doomsday Upon us? Thomas Malthus, a British economist and
demographer at the turn of the 19th century, is being recalled to duty. His
basic theory was that populations, which grow geometrically, will inevitably
outpace food production, which grows arithmetically. Famine would result. The
thought has underlain doomsday scenarios both real and imagined, from the Great
Irish Famine of 1845 to the Population Bomb of 1968.
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| The Peak
Oil secret is starting to reach the masses. Photographed in Paris Metro
station on 21st June. |
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May 2008
It is with much
sadness that an oil and food crisis are unfolding in a similar manner as I have
been predicting for the past three years. The Peak Oil documentary that is
available through this site "If the Oil Runs Out' explored a scenario of daily
rising oil prices and the impact on middle America, which was probably the most
accurate depiction I have seen to date. It shows a scenario of soaring oil
prices while people and businesses are desperately trying to hold on to
'business as usual'. Eventually, gas pumps are running dry, trucking companies
go out of business, people are putting up for sale their 4x4's after loosing
their job and things go from bad to worse. The documentary has a happy end,
which in the real world is highly unlikely. The number of optimists thinking that
high oil prices will provide an incentive to further boost production or
encourage the (sudden) development and implementation of alternatives is
certainly on the decrease (they are finally coming to their senses). What is
next? No one knows, but my guess is that we are entering a protracted phase of
transition - possibly lasting a few years - to much darker times and we can only
hope for the best. Enjoy life while you still can.
Oil: A global crisis The $200 a barrel predictions are now becoming
increasingly common in the mass media. People are quickly catching on to the
enfolding crisis. Many are still convinced the answer lies in addressing supply.
However, the most misunderstood is the law of exponential growth, which is
rarely ever mentioned. Even if global economic growth and demand for oil
contracts, as long as it is positive it is exponential. As long as the world
population grows, demand for food will remain exponential. Oil production growth
-if any- is linear. And this fundamental discrepancy is the basis of our
problem.
Saudi oil output rise would not solve US Problems
Bush said on Saturday that a hike in oil output by Saudi Arabia would not solve
American energy problems. Finally some wise words, except the part where he
thinks that aggressively expanding domestic exploration will solve the problem.
Yet another
Oil Record Prices only seem to be on the up, and it is hardly making any
headlines anymore. Whether or not this is the beginning of the end and the Peak
Oil Crisis is already truly unfolding remains to be seen. I stick with my
2011-2012 estimate before things really start getting out of hand, but no one
knows for sure. The recent price rises are of the 'paper barrel' and not so much
yet the 'liquid barrel', driven by commodity speculators. Investors are surely
taking notice, and some observe that 'you cannot go wrong with oil'.
Shell Execs briefed on Peak Oil in 1956 When did Shell executives first
learn that the world would one day face the moment of peak oil, known to many as
Hubbert’s Peak? Answer: as far back as 1956 when M. King Hubbert delivered his
seminal speech to Shell employees predicting the day when oil reserves would
begin to decline.
OPEC monthly report |
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March 2008
The Independent: We can't cling to crude: we should leave oil before it leaves
us Little new here for those already well informed, but the fact that
this article appeared in the Saturday issue of a leading UK newspaper is
interesting to say the least. Although we may not have yet fully reached global
peak oil, the fact that more and more people are talking about it is perhaps the
first sign of a change in public opinion, possibly resulting in more speculative
buying on the oil markets and pushing prices up even further.
White House: No good answer to energy ills That should come as no
surprise because a) they have simply ignored all warning signs for the last few
decades and b) it is too late now. This link is from the NYMEX commodity board,
which tend to disappear after some time. Therefore, here is the full text:
WASHINGTON, Mar 13, 2008 (UPI via COMTEX) -- No single answer is
satisfactory for U.S. consumers watching gasoline prices rise at the pump and
energy bills climb, a White House spokesman said Thursday.
"From our perspective, what we need to do is keep this economy growing and
focus on rising wages and job growth so that people can deal with the reality of
higher oil prices," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said during a news
briefing.
The Bush administration is concerned about low-income Americans that use a
higher proportion of their income to pay for energy, he said. Programs such as
the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance Program is designed to help qualifying
people cope with higher prices.
"(But) our focus has to be on growing the U.S. economy, growing wages so that
people can deal with these (higher energy costs)," Fratto said, "because it is
going to take a long time to deal with changes and transformations in the energy
markets."
Time to get back into oil This article was published in February and I
was going to post it here that month. However, for various reasons I didn't get
the chance. Shame, now that oil is breaching even the $110 mark. However, the
article makes some interesting notes about market timing. Oil prices may retreat
again temporarily, which will be the time to invest again.
Investing in Energy Although now may not be the right time to buy into
oil or gold (you may consider and hope for a temporary future dip), here is an
interesting source for buying into Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). Although when
things get really tough, you may be better off holding actual physical gold &
silver. We are not in any way associated with this site, which looks a little
flashy, but these financial guys have been around for a while and are a decent
source of information.
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January 2008
Learning survival lessons from Russia Some excellent information and
great lessons that may possibly be very useful when taking into consideration
all peak oil survival strategies. First published on another peak oil website
(sorry Matt). It confirms the potential problems you may encounter if you are
going for the 'loner strategy', hoping to live off the land somewhere remotely,
hidden away from others.
"$100
Oil" headline in The Times For the first time ever, record
oil prices have made it to the front page as lead article in the printed
publication of one of the UK's leading newspapers The Times, reading "Oil
at $100 threatens to choke economy". Meanwhile, there is little evidence that
people are concerned. The Chrismast sales shoppers continue to fill the parking
garages, and business continues as usual. I can only hope that we still have a
small time window in which to reap the benefits of a fossil fuel world, enjoying
our families and life as we know it. I am growing more doubtful though how long
that time window is going to be.
Saudi Arabia delaying new projects Saudi Arabia is considered to be the
only oil producing nation in the world that has any spare capacity left, but the
national oil company Aramco have just announced that it is delaying the start of
production of a new field, putting into question Saudi's ability to continue to
meet increased world demand. |
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November 2007
Oil Bosses warning on oil output Global Oil Production will never exceed
100 million barrels per day.
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October 2007
China's drive for wealth means end of our low-carbon dreams It is not in
our power to stop the Chinese locomotive; we should leave our fantasies behind,
acknowledge that carbon emissions and oil consumption will continue to grow and
plan accordingly.
Has World Oil Peaked?
Monthly report (PDF) concluding that it is still too early to tell whether
or not global production has peaked.
Review of DVD 'A Crude Awakening / The Oil Crash I had high
hopes and expectations for this DVD documentary by Basil Gelpe and Ray
McCormack, based on other reviews and the awards it has won. Having been
involved in Peak Oil for almost three years now and having seen all other
documentaries, this is by far the least-inspiring and I struggled to stay awake.
The DVD disc itself has written on it 'We are running out and we don't have a
plan', which appears to be evidence that the producers did not quite grasp the
concept of Peak Oil, or if they did this is an incorrect statement to
communicate to the public. It is of course not the oil running out that is the
problem, it is an issue of lack of further growth followed by a production
decline. The documentary is an incoherent collection of a series of black & white
archive material and interviews with experts, some which fail to come across as
very credible. Although I have a lot of respect for Matt Savinar's work (he runs the number one website on Peak Oil) his appearance in a green navy-like
sweater
behind shelves stacked with survival food & kits could easily erode his credibility
to the un-initiated. The documentary fails to get to the point across quickly, and
lacks the power and persuasion that documentaries like for example Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth
or Crude Impact exhibit. I think most people are quite aware of the
importance of oil to our society, and spending 30+ minutes highlighting it with
historical footage and artistic shots is hardly inspiring in my view. This is a very important and
serious subject, and I have yet to find a documentary that gets the point across
in an extremely simply and powerful way, and that you can't wait to show to your family and
friends.
Woodpellet Heating & Peak Oil This is probably the first time that
I see a company using Peak Oil to highlight a product's advantages. Wood pellets are
a cheap alternative to gas, oil and other fuels to heat your house. The only
problem is that you still depend on a truck delivering it to your house once a
year and you still depend on the factories making these pellets, as well as
regular maintenance of the pellet burner. Still something to consider though.
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September 2007
Boeing 747 to fly on biofuel in 2008 Air New Zealand has announced it
will carry out the first commercial trial of a bio-fuelled Boeing 747. Of
course, one of the problems with mass-producing bio-fuels from conventional
crops is that it competes with food crops for arable land. Furthermore, even if
airlines manage to achieve a high degree of autonomy by taking control of their
energy source, they cannot operate and function in isolation. As a whole, the
airline industry will continue to rely on the vast surrounding fossil
fuel-intensive infrastructure for support and continued economic prosperity and
stability.
$100 oil anyone? This article, calling the peak-oil crowd that "merry
band of doomsters", notes that $100+ a barrel is now no longer more far fetched
than oil at $50. The author concludes this in light of experts' reports at the
annual ASPO conference and oil's recent historical record prices.
Oil may average $100 in 2007 (Q4) Oil may average $100 in the fourth quarter of 2007, as demand outpaces supply,
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's chief economist said.
Shell ex-CEO: "Sleepwalking into a Crisis" Peak Oil is slowly
penetrating the global consciousness. Oil is approaching $82 a barrel, banks
are in crisis, the public is loosing confidence and ice caps are melting at
alarming rates. The clocks going back an hour in just a month's time is just an
echo of the darker times ahead.
Alan Greenspan's claim that the Iraq war is about oil U.S. Defense
Secretary Robert Gates on Sunday rejected former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan's statement that the Iraq war "is largely about oil."
ASPO
Conference Cork The annual ASPO conference is starting on Monday. A DVD
of professional broadcast quality will be available for 125 Euros.
Start of a banking crisis? Thousands of nervous customers waited for
hours outside branches of Northern Rock, Britain's fifth largest mortgage bank, on Saturday desperate to withdraw
savings after it was forced to seek emergency funds to weather the global credit
crunch
Oil Hits New Records It is unclear if record oil prices are the clearest
sign yet that the world is fast approaching peak oil, or if speculation and and
non-fundamental factors are to blame.
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August 2007
OPEC's 11th September meeting OPEC is unlikely to raise oil
production at the meeting in Vienna, despite oil prices continuing their recent
surge.
U.S. Envoy: Middle East turmoil could cause World War Upheaval in
the Middle East and Islamic civilisation could cause another world war, the U.S.
ambassador to the United Nations was quoted as saying in an Austrian newspaper
interview published on Monday
The
Economics of Oil
Very interesting article by a London based portfolio manager about
the economics of oil. If you have some background in (micro) economics, it will
make easier reading. If not, it is still a good piece to read to have some more
understanding of the underlying fundamentals of oil prices and demand.
The 1929
Stock Market Crash and Depression
If you read this article about the stock market crash that fueled
the 1930's Depression, there are some striking parallels with current situation
America is currently in: an over-inflated stock market, misplaced trust in
shares, highly mortgaged homes and several interest rate rises. Add to this
the looming energy crisis, and we have a recipe for a disaster that may make the
Great Depression look like a walk in the park.
Peak Bread Niall Ferguson from the Daily Telegraph warns us about
future food shortages, and makes a very important observation about how the
disparity between exponential population growth versus only linear food crops
growth means we are now approaching a new era of food scarcity and misery.
An Eco-System of One's
Own
This May article in Vanity Fair will be an eye-opener for many,
showing the global impact and resource wastage of the average American and other
Westerner's routines. I was unable to link to the original article, so here is
the PDF file (apologies to Vanity Fair). It makes one realize again how
difficult or impossible it will be to change our way of life before change will
be forced upon us... |
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July 2007
ASPO
Conference 2007
This years Annual International ASPO conference is shaping up to be a
truly significant event and for a number of reasons. Not least of which is that
this will be the first time Ireland will host the event, home to ASPO's founder,
Dr. Colin Campbell. And September is a wonderful time of year to visit the
Emerald Isle.
International Energy Agency predicts trouble ahead
In a stunning interview for the French Le Monde, Fatih
Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (i.e. the
intergovernmental body created after the oil shocks of the 70s to coordinate the
West's reaction to energy crises) effectively says that peak oil is just around
the corner, and that without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015.
This is the second time in just a
few weeks that a top figure discusses in a frank interview the enormous energy
challenges that the world is facing. In June (see below), Shell's CEO Jeroen van
der Veer made similar observations. In the interview, Birol's admittance that
"biofuels are not based on any kind of rationality", sounds all too eerily
familiar.
Coal-to-Coal: America's energy solution?
In a recent study published by JP Morgan, it was estimated that it would
take the construction of 70 to 100 plants using Coal-to-Gas (CTL) technology to
substitute all the oil currently being imported by the USA from OPEC. The
analysis also indicated that the average per-barrel production cost for such
plants would be in the area of $48, including the cost of carbon dioxide
removal; a key environmental consideration given the fact that a standard CTL
plant produces about 2.5-times the carbon dioxide that a standard refinery puts
out.
Is
the financial world catching onto Peak Oil? Portfolio Manager and
Research Analyst Greg Silberman discusses gold stocks versus oil stocks and is
surprisingly a believer in Peak Oil. He writes: "“I’m a believer in the
Commodity Super-cycle and in Peak Oil but gosh, just tell me what (and when) I
should be buying!” Is the financial world slowly catching on?
City ploughing its money into farmland In the UK, a great battle is
under way to own a piece of the countryside. Investors see farmland as a
potential hedge in world gripped by food price inflation. Indeed, farmland's
price rises - across the world - are likely to accelerate once a Peak Oil
crisis arrives and food production falters.
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June 2007
Oil Giants admit to PEAK OIL!!
ExxonMobil and Shell have warned the world of a pending energy crisis, "which
cannot be solved by renewables." In an interview with The Times, CEO Jeroen van
der Veer calls for a 'reality check' and greater investment in energy
efficiency. He says that "the world is blinding itself to the reality of its
energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing
countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power. Contrary to
public perceptions, renewable energy is not the silver bullet that will soon
solve all our problems."
Likewise, ExxonMobil's CEO Tillerson points to a widespread failure by
policymakers to understand the extent to which the aspirations of people in
developing countries are fuelling growth in demand for energy. He says that
world energy demand would rise by 45 per cent by 2030, and fossil fuels – oil,
natural gas and coal – were the only energy sources of sufficient size,
adaptability and affordability to meet the world’s needs.
Comment by Editor: Shell's CEO Van de Veer appears to have
understood the Peak Oil problems very well and has skillfully brought them to
the public eye. Indeed, his proposition to put more emphasis on fuel efficiency
is one step in the right direction. It is an outrage that in this day and age,
the average American car has the same or even worse fuel efficiency than one or
two decades ago. Only a few months ago, the fuel gauge of the Chevrolet that I
rented was visibly and steadily decreasing while only just leaving the airport
car park! Compare that to the VW Tdi I rented a few days ago, whose fuel gauge
refused to move for the first part of the trip before decreasing by about 1/10th
of an inch after driving 100 miles or so while the onboard trip computer showed
an average mpg of around 60 (US) / 71 (UK).
From Peak Oil to Dark Age (Business Week) Peak Oil is gaining momentum in
the press....
Food Price rises force a cut in biofuels Finally some evidence and
admittance by a national government that biofuels aren't the answer to the
world's energy problems. China's communist rulers have now announced a moratorium
on the production of ethanol from corn and other food crops, at the very time
that Western leaders are rushing to embrace alternative food-based fuel
technology. It reflects the growing reality that food-based alternative
fuel is far more expensive both economically and environmentally than Western
politicians are likely to admit.
OPEC warning on Biofuels OPEC have said that it may cut long-term investment
to expand oil production capacity because of recent trends of countries to
switch more towards biofuels. OPEC state that otherwise it could have "too much
excess idle capacity"!...
Biofuels will struggle to provide the additional energy requirements of growing
economies, demand and consumption patterns, especially in light of the marginal
net energy value they deliver at the expensive of soil and other natural
resources. It is even more delusional of OPEC to conclude that biofuels will
replace current declines in conventional oil AND provide excess energy capacity
to the point where it could threaten the conventional oil supply market. It
almost appears more and more that OPEC are covering up their inability to
produce 'oil on demand'. If in the future they are unable to meet demand, they
can just blame it on the biofuels. It doesn't take much to work out that even in
the best case scenario, taking into account biofuels growth and world energy
demand, OPEC will need to produce a lot more oil to balance supply & demand to
avoid a huge shock.
World Spare Oil Capacity Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Petroleum
Review, talks with GPM's Julian Darley about the latest spare capacity estimates
for the Middle East and the world (audio)
The Challenge of Peak Oil Let's start June with a superb article by
Richard Heinberg, which really captures the essence of Peak Oil and the
challenges that lie ahead. He ends the article with "Ecological thinkers have
been proposing transformations along these lines for decades. Now such proposals
are no longer just good ideas; they are survival strategies. Nature has given us
two options: adapt or die. The sooner we choose the former path, the better the
outcome"
Zimbabwe in crisis This African country will face collapse within 6 months.
It is a good example what the dire consequences are of a country in crisis, and
what we may see during a future peak oil crisis when production collapses gain
momentum.
ASPO June
Newsletter (PDF) Includes interesting part questioning why Peak Oil is
politically incorrect. It starts with "Don't you feel that at times that the
issue of Peak Oil is not only ignored by the media but that it is, actually,
politically incorrect?" Google trends show not only that there is more interest
in Global Warming than Peak Oil, but also that Global Warming is gaining in
popularity whereas the trend in Peak Oil is opposite. It also concludes that
apparently, most people cannot focus their minds at the same time on two issues
that are perceived as different and unrelated.
Blowing Green Smoke Another excellent article by the legendary peak
oil author James Howard Kunstler.
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May 2007
Peak Oil Thriller / Novel Written by Alex Scarrow,
this new book (release July) is probably more of a sneak preview of events to
come than a novel when the world faces energy starvation. Civilization is more
fragile than you think. Use the link to watch the frightening trailer.
The Hirsch
Report Part II The first Hirsch report was a very excellent and
comprehensive study into the Peaking of oil and its consequences, specifically
for the USA. This second report is a follow up and very worthwhile to read. It
sums up and re-iterates the problems of peaking very well. Prof Hirsch reminds
us how quickly oil wells, without much notice, can peak. The
proposed mitigation strategies, based on an analysis for the US Department of Energy,
considering tar sands, coal liquefaction, enhanced oil recovery and
gas-to-liquids are very questionable though and crucially fail to address the EROI
(Energy Return on Energy Invested). These "technologies" are very energy
intensive with only marginal net energy values and very serious environmental
problems. Are
we in the transition period to the defining Peak Oil moment? Absent of any
panic, the most likely scenario is probably one of gradual change, where
business carries on as usual. The world has great momentum, but once it stops,
it stops...... $4
a gallon, and America is driving more....Do you know of any
other product or resource of which more is consumed despite price rises? In
economics this is called 'reverse price elasticity'. This article proposes a
fuel tax.
Preparing for Peak Oil According to the GAO (Government Accountability
Office), "Many studies indicate that oil production will peak between now and
2040." Eleven of the 20 studies referred to in the report show peak oil
production occurring now. |
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Apr 2007 China
will overtake America this year as world's biggest green house gas emitter
In a seismic shift for the world, China will overtake the United States as the
biggest emitter of greenhouse gases this year, far earlier than thought, which
is an ominous sign that the global peak date may be moving forward. Of course,
the Chinese feel they should be entirely free to pursue economic growth, just as
western countries have done for 200 years. They also still have much lower oil
consumption and carbon emissions in per capita terms than do western nations.
However, with close to 1.5 billion inhabitants, ambitions to match living
standards of the US are simply not feasible in terms of our resource base, even
absent Peak Oil. Virgin
Atlantic orders new & more fuel efficient Boeing aircraft, that may eventually
run on bio-fuels. Virgin
Atlantic's Richard Branson definitely has long-term vision by having placed an
order of 43 new 787 Boeing Dreamliner aircraft, which will be 27% more fuel
efficient than their current Airbus aircraft. Virgin also confirmed that it is
joining with Boeing and the US engine manufacturer General Electric in a project
to develop a new generation of bio-fuels to power future aircraft. The aim is to
demonstrate the technology on a Boeing 747 jumbo next year. Jim McNerney, the
Boeing chairman, said that a number of options were being looked at for
producing the fuel, from soya beans and algae to grain and "cellulosic"
crops such as prairie grass. Until now, it had not been thought feasible to
produce an alternative aviation fuel, because conventional fuels such as ethanol
freeze at altitudes higher than 15,000 feet. Sir
Richard predicted a "major breakthrough" in the technology in the next
two to three years, which could make bio-powered aircraft a commercial reality
by the time its 787s start to be delivered in 2011. Of
course, even if Virgin succeeds by 2011 running their entire aircraft fleet on
high percentage biofuel blends, the question remains if people are going to have
a need and the money to travel, once we pass global Peak Production, as
economies start to falter. Nevertheless, change may be gradual and a strategy of
'sustained and profitable retreat' may indeed pay-off, while most other airlines
will struggle to survive. Even after an oil and economic crash, there will
continue to be people with money to spend. In addition, an airline such as
Virgin relies heavily on a supporting infrastructure, around their route
network, that will continue to depend for the most part on fossil fuels. Five
Geopolitical Feedback-loops in Peak Oil
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Mar 2007
Full
Living Planet Report ESSENTIAL reading for Peak Oil Survival
Strategists. The ecological debtor and creditor country map is a useful guide
for relocation purposed in light of the coming crisis. Living
Planet Report "How we can
live well within the means of one planet? This is the main research question of
the 21st century," says Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, Executive Director of
Global Footprint Network, The question is a primary focus of this year's Living
Planet Report.
Report:
US Government needs plan for oil peak The U.S.
government is in need of a strategy to minimize potentially dire economic
consequences after worldwide oil production peaks and begins to decline, the
investigative arm of Congress said Thursday.
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Jan 2007 Oil
at $35? Many have said,
including myself, that when we approach peak oil we will see oil prices
accelerating upwards. The recent decline in oil prices has come as a shock to
many of the peak oil analysts, but is not all that surprising. The problem with
oil prices is that they are in no way a reflection of the medium and long term
supply and demand fundamentals. Oil prices are largely determined by speculation
(the illiquid barrel) and Wall Street can only look ahead a few months, maybe a
year at most, and so they base their 'wisdom' on a mild winter, hurricane
activity and arbitrary predictions in demand. As long as there is spare capacity
in the world, even if it is close to zero, oil prices could fluctuate wildly,
with actual demand and supply setting a price floor. Unfortunately, lower oil
prices fail to provide the much needed confirmation for many that peak oil is as
real as death and taxes, and business-as-usual will carry on. It is almost like
the calm before the storm, with the world keeping and accelerating its momentum and
setting ourselves up for an even
deeper crisis once we do run out of spare capacity and we approach the
relentless slope on the other side of the curve.
Where
to live when the Peak Oil Crisis unfolds Very
interesting article discussing the advantages and disadvantages of living near a
city or living in isolation before and during a Peak Oil Crisis. Indeed,
only a very few will succeed - under the best of circumstances - in a self
sufficient lifestyle in an isolated retreat. Halfway measures won't do, but we
do not really know what the full measures are, and in this lies the paradox. The
self-sufficient strategy relies on some very extensive and informed planning,
requiring man-on-the-moon skills, with a large dosage of luck. Your success will
probably depend on remaining undiscovered, and the hardships placed upon you and
your family will be unprecedented, and that is just one aspect. One of the most
popular peak oil websites recently published some very extensive 'disaster
preparation' plans in a series. It is difficult to understand for me why someone that
appears to understand Peak Oil so well decided to put these articles on his
website, when these preparations all have severely limited value in the real
world of Peak Oil. All of these plans were based on having to survive for between 2-10
days or so in case of hurricanes, earthquakes, virus outbreaks etc. In other
words, once the threat subsides and rebuilding work starts, life goes on again,
and everyone will get back again on their feet, unlike Peak Oil. Another
published article on the same website seemed to encourage everyone to pack a
backpack and venture out, giving a (false) romantic impression that during
the future crisis we will live like nomads, venturing out into the 'open' and running into
other like-minded survivalists / backpackers, who will point us in the right
direction of a friendly farmer in the next village before they make their
separate ways, while singing the sound-of-music songs. I could hardly imagine
such a scenario, and just the thought of being on the road for many years or
even months - especially with a family-, not knowing what danger is around the next corner, while being hungry and
cold, just doesn't seem like a life worth living. Admittedly, it is difficult to
come up with a strategy that has a good chance of success and will fit most
scenarios, as the scope and timing of the crisis are unknown, but there must be
something better than that. After two years of study on the subject, my conclusion
remains that we need to be in or migrate to a small community (not the suburb
type of community where you can leave your doors unlocked and help out your neighbors
by buying their kid's scout cookies), preferably in a part
of the world that will be relatively immune to the consequences of peak oil....God
bless.
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Dec 2006 Peak
Oil Survival / Solutions Some
excellent ideas here. As far as debt and mortgages are concerned, many believe
the best thing to do is pay them off more quickly. However, one must realize
that even during a severe crisis, banks and financial institutions will continue
to exist for a while and if you cannot make your mortgage payments - even if you
only have a year left on it - you will loose the house. This is exactly what
happened during the Great Depression. So my advice is to either have a fixed
rate 100% mortgage (or close to it) with no or little capital repayments, and
sufficient cash to keep payments up, or have no mortgage. Nothing in between.
Equally important is to know whether your house is in the right place to start
with. No point in having your city apartment mortgage paid off when its value
will be reduced to anywhere between null and zero.... Living
more simply and sustainably The Mucuxi people are a
prime example of how a group can live simply and sustainably and they appear
sufficiently isolated geographically to perhaps remain immune to a peak oil
crisis. Perhaps we can learn a great deal from them.
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Nov 2006 Sneak
Preview of a Post Oil Era The majority of us will
struggle even trying to imagine what life will be like after transitioning to a
post oil era. Without our everyday luxuries and conveniences, just trying to
survive will be one of the hardest realities we will have to cope with. It may
not be all that bad though........ This link has some very interesting
previews of an episode of Worlds Apart. Stripped of their material possessions
and hectic schedules, the Palmer family find themselves undergoing a dramatic
transformation while developing deep bonds and respect for people whose
drastically different lifestyle can trace its roots back thousands of years.
Especially the preview 'Saying Goodbye' is touching and sheds a different light
onto Peak Oil Survival.
NDVI as an Indicator
of Drought for Strategic Relocation purposes Satellite remote sensors can quantify what fraction of the photosynthetically
active radiation is absorbed by vegetation. The NDVI (Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index) value can be averaged over time to establish the
"normal" growing conditions for the vegetation in a given region for a
given time of the year and can be used to characterize the health of the
vegetation there, relative to the norm.
Researchers at NASA and NOAA have two decades of NDVI data over the entire
globe. Comparing this month’s or this year’s NDVI data with the 20-year
average reveals whether the productivity in a given region is typical, or
whether the plant growth is significantly more or less productive. Periods of
reduced plant growth are due to a lack of precipitation or exceptionally cold
temperatures (which can delay or cut short the growing season) and clouds.
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Oct 2006 Bush's
alleged 100,000 acre hideway in Paraguay
Is
President Bush preparing robustly for a Post-Oil Era? Paraguay happened to rank
in the top 35 countries of desirability in my Peak Oil Survival Guide, based on
arable land per capita, energy self sufficiency (100%), while the country has
one of the largest underground water reserves (Guarani Aquifer). Map
of Tranquility in England. This map
of England is a very interesting one from a Peak Oil Survival point of view, for
those focusing on this part of the world. The top five elements of tranquility
used for the map were a natural landscape, birdsong, the ability to experience
peace and quiet, woodland and seeing the stars. It is not difficult to see the
parallel with Peak Oil Strategic Relocation.
Oil
Price to stay between $50-$75 (PDF file) into 2007 Thorough
analysis from Peak Oil Organization Netherlands, showing peak date beyond 2012. Amish
show how the modern world has forgotten ancient virtues It
is very easy to see the relevance of this article with peak oil. The way of life
of the Amish is admirable and they will be best prepared for a post-oil era. World
moves into ecological overdraft today Humanity slides
into the red today and begins racking up an ecological overdraft driven by
unsustainable exploitation of the world's resources, according to a report by
the sustainable development organisation Global Footprint Network. For North
Americans the "ecological footprint" - the land and water a person
needs to sustain their lifestyle - is 9.6 hectares (23.7 acres). For the typical
African it is 1.4 hectares. China
Imports 95.8 million tons of crude in first 8 months Richard
Heinberg talks about Peak Oil (video) It
starts to look like a plateau Data from EIA shows that
the world supplies of oil were down with an average of 0,18 Mb/d for the 7 first
months of 2006 relative to the same period of 2005, and that the supplies of
regular oil and lease condensate so far still had a top back in December 2005. UK
to become net energy importer by 2007
Runaway
costs imperil Canada's Oil Sands hopes
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Sep 2006 Preparing
for a crash Some excellent ideas and views on Peak Oil
Survival Peak
Oil in 2008? Iran
warns of oil price hike if sanctions imposed Nigeria,
China sign agreement on ethanol production |
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Aug 2006 Soaring
Natural Resource Prices Oil
Sands: Burning Energy to Produce it
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July 2006 Tracking
Crude Oil Flows ASPO
Conference 5 ITALY Notes from
the ASPO July conference in Rimini. Peak
Oil and Aviation ASPO and Dr Colin Campbell have been so kind as to
support the article I wrote for an international Aviation magazine and refer to
it in their ASPO June Newsletter. Email me if you wish to have a PDF copy of
this article. Oil
industry hits peak production Leading expert Bakhtiari has warned
that the oil industry is reaching peak production. Perhaps many of the peak date
predictions have all been too conservative and we are in the first phase of the
transition to an uncertain future. |
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June 2006 Clinton
acknowledges Peak Oil Air
Transport Association to tackle oil price challenge at annual meeting Assessing
offer to Iran No
techo-fixed for Peak Oil
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May 2006 Iran
will replace dollar for euro as oil currency Energy
costs, competition, financial woes reshaping airline industry Chavez
to offer oil to Europe's poor Venezuela:
A sudden plunge in production A
Battle for oil could set the world aflame Fuel,
Fertilizer prices expected to keep climbing
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April 2006 Peak
Oil on our doorsteps Evidence is emerging that global
oil production is about to peak China
Death Threat for Oil theft! That just about sums up the world's
insane addiction to oil Branson
to put $400 million into making bio-fuels Peak
Oil and Investments New
York City best place to be when oil hits $100 Cities with an excellent transportation system in place are
attractive when according to a survey. But be aware, in the medium or long term,
you are probably best off far away from population concentrations. |
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March 2006 Can
Peak Oil make you rich? Does it matter? US
Spends its ways to 28 Eiffel Towers: made out of pure gold The
US - Venezuela Energy Showdown The
Peak Oil Crisis: Rationing by Price CNN
Documentary on Oil Crisis NY
Times: Peak Oil almost certainly correct China
and India to test oil demand with price reform China
& India consumers will start to suffer as government announces phasing out
of fuel subsidies due to high prices.
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February 2006 World
Oil Peak Passed on 16 December 2005: watch the crisis unfold Don't
be fooled by a temporary lull in oil price rises. The longer an event fails to
happen, the easier it is to assume it is not, while odds of occurrence rise (S.Marner). James
Lovelock: It is too late to save civilization as we know it. Chaves
threatens to cut off oil exports to US Peak
Oil Newsletter 1st Quarter 2006 (PDF) Is
there a cure for oil addiction? Bush
says US must kick oil habit US government has drawn up
plans to break foreign oil dependency, but it's probably too little too
late. Bush
bangs out hollow message on an oil can US
Savings rate sinks to lowest rate since the Great Depression This key economic indicator, in combination with high oil
prices and inflation, may be the first sign that of real trouble ahead.
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January 2006 Ready
for $262 a barrel? Conclusion of
some of the world's most successful investors Spoonful
of Methanol will help the world go around Japanese scientists have
revealed a revolutionary fuel cell that will transform the the global effort to
commercialize these cells. However, there are serious doubts about the rate at
which the technology can be commercialized, and realistically this is still 20
years away, which once again shows that nothing can replace fossil fuels in time
at the scale required to avert a very deep global crisis. DARK
SECRET: What they don't want you to know about the coming Oil Crisis Peak
Oil is hitting the mainstream, which is a disturbing & chilling reality
check. Highly regarded British national newspaper the Independent has today
issued an Extra report stating that it's time to face the fact that the supplies
we so depend on are going to run out. It says: "The
most basic of foundations of our assumption of future economic well-being is
rotten. Our society is in a state of collective denial that has no precedent in
history"
Oil
Prices may hit $100 within near-future
The Year
ahead, by Jim Kunstler ASPO
January letter (PDF) Grid
Alert in Britain
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2005 Profound
shift in global energy system A
Risk of Total Collapse It is a genuine possibility Saudi
plans $26 billion 'economic city' This project is part
of Saudi's effort to take advantage of the new oil boom
CNN
covers Peak Oil Rep.
offers 'Man on the Moon' problem solving to combat oil decline
Where's
the Oil Money?
ASPO
December Newsletter (pdf)
Peak Oil
discussed in Washington DC Concerns
over Indian Oil Output Britain
considering re-opening mines to avert energy crisis
Cold
Snap hits gas prices Chavez
offers cheap oil to poor Americans Once again,
Venezuela's president seems to be ahead of the game Kuwait's biggest
field starts to run out of oil An incredible
revelation by the Kuwait Oil Company Peak
Oil War: A World Peace Story From the American
Thinktank Community Solution (PDF file) The Coming Crisis and the Decline of Aviation
Article
I have written for one of the biggest aviation sites in the world
Why
Silver could be the new Gold The Sunday Times underlines
my recommendations found in the Peak
Oil Survival Guide
ASPO
November Newsletter (PDF) President Hugo Chavez is probably the only country leader
that has a plan 'B' for Venezuela! South
Africa banks on new family of Nuclear Reactors
Peak
Oil Crisis: We must prepare now (Richard Heinberg) Warning as world faces $17 trillion energy bill
"Facing the
Challenge" The full presentations from the
Energy Institute's conference 'Oil Depletion World's
oil running out Cars
running on Biodiesel mix by 2010 Soaring
price of gold predicts bout of carnage in bond markets Surviving the City
Zambia: Riot police
confront anger over fuel crisis
Peak Oil Crisis: Waiting for
Winter
Energy
Policy or Disaster Doubt raised on Saudi
Ability to pump more oil The
Five Minute Guide: Oil Does
Peak Oil Signal the End? Return
of the three-day week China
Crisis At current trends, the Chinese would require 99 million barrels a day by 2031
(current
world production is 84 bpd)
Waiting
for the lights to go out The
Sunday Times raises the possibility of a new Dark Age
There
is no 'Plan B'
Has
Oil Production Peaked? (USAtoday)
The
Peak Oil Problem: Running out sooner than we think
Peak
Oil Hollywood Movie
PetroCollapse
New York Conference
Peak
in 2015
America
gets wake up call to turn off the lights
The
Coming Oil Crisis (Forbes)
Rita causes record damage to oil rigs
China looks at $24bn coal-to-oil plan
Project delays 'drive up oil prices'
$380 Oil? Banks talk Oil
Decline
Peak Oil Crisis: The first casualty
IMF warns of global risk as oil price nears record
Cut in R&D spending poses threat to world oil supplies
The failed war for oil
Britain risks catastrophe if it remains dependent on Middle East oil
Branson to build refinery: Virgin Oil
Oil Prices Could Treble: INTERVIEW (Video) with M. Simmons
Fuel price increases as serious as 1970's
UK facing power black outs this winter
Talk of Oil Decline moving into Mainstream
Oil Could Surge to $200
Oil, Housing worries threaten American Dream
Peak Oil Crisis
Oil May climb to $500 within 6 months
A Fit of (Oil) Peak
Central America on maximum alert due to Oil Crisis
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Other news & resources
Breaking Point
Rising energy prices outstrip capacity of users to absorb them in consumer charges
Has Production Peaked? (BBC)
Oil and Conflict - A natural mix
Experts debate 'peak oil'
Oil: Is the End at hand? (CNN)
Peaking Out
Analysts fear crisis in three years
Experts hear Oil Depletion fear
Crude Awakening
The coming economic depression
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