It's gone fairly quiet on the peak oil front. It's
obvious from even my website traffic statistics that people are less concerned.
The world has now focused on fracking, which is bringing some temporary relief.
It's hard to keep the peak oil momentum going when there is no current crisis
and when optimism is awash in the media about alleged endless supplies of fossil
fuels. Yet, the price of oil still hoovers around $110, so how can that be
The timing of peak
oil and how it will all play out in the future is difficult to predict with any
accuracy, and is heavily influenced by economic and political factors. The new
fracking frontier has probably postponed the peak date by a few years, but it
seems highly unlikely that the problem has been pushed as far as the next
generation, but I hope I am wrong.
Is Peak Oil Dead?
Interview with Martin Payne. Peak Oil is still
alive & kicking, but it’s a forest and trees situation. It’s hard not to get
caught up in the fracking boom. In a handful of places the boom is real, people
are doing well, and it’s floating a lot of boats. But you have to go back and
look at the big picture, look at the scale of these plays. These are “trees”
and they give us a temporary reprieve from what Bob Hirsch called the severe
consequences of not taking enough action proactively with respect to peak oil.
The question is will these plays “fix” peak oil? The answer is no.
Don't fall for the shale Boom Hype
In this article:
Why we shouldn't talk about energy independence
What the media is failing to report about the
"massive" Shale discoveries
How oil analysts are getting the economics wrong
Why we could see $200 a barrel Oil in the Near
The relationship between energy and the economy
Why peak oil is not a defunct theory
How tight oil is being oversold
How price, not technology, has unlocked boom
Why it's about conservation now, not new
Why we should be concerned about another
America will not become energy self sufficient
USA shale's current and potential maximum production are less than 10% of USA
daily consumption. Current production at the over hyped Bakken field, although
providing an enormous boost to the local economy, hovers around 0.5 million
barrels per day compared to 20 million barrels per day US daily consumption or
Peak Oil is here and there's no magic to counter it
This where we stand, and it's a fairly bleak view: Peak oil is almost here, and
nothing new (with the possible but unlikely exception of Iraq) is coming online
anytime soon and while the clock is ticking - forward movement on developing
renewable energy resources has been sadly inadequate. In the meantime, the idea
that shale reservoirs will lead the US to energy independence will soon enough
be recognized as unrealistic hype. There are no easy solutions, no viable quick
fixes, and no magic fluids.
Cheap Oil is an incontrovertible fact
MUST READ ARTICLE
As the worlds continues business-as-usual,
battling against an economic downward spiral, more evidence emerges that the
global peak oil is imminent. Barclays Capital expects a “monster” effect this
quarter as the crude market tightens by 2.4m barrels a day (bpd), with little
extra supply in sight. Goldman Sachs said the industry is chronically incapable
of meeting global needs. “It is only a matter of time before inventories and
OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to
Economists, politicians and the public will
continue to deny and ignore the facts, pointing to other factors as the root
causes of the state of the economy. Now more than ever, countries like the USA
need leaders that are capable of understanding our predicament and lead onto a
new path forward.
Oil Limits are leading to limits to GDP Growth
Excellent article from our friends at the Oildrum
showing the relationship between oil supplies & prices and GDP growth. Few
economists and governments around the world actually realize or would
acknowledge that there is a very strong link between stagnating world supply and
the poor state of many (oil importing) economies around the world. We may well
be approaching the limits to economic growth.
There has been much hoopla in the United States
press about supposed growth in oil supply as a result of new onshore techniques–fracking
and other enhanced oil recovery–which are affecting US crude oil production.
However, it's important to note that many new or revived supplies mostly just
offset declines in other fields. The fact remains that growth in world oil
supply has been worrisome for many for roughly 40 years, since US oil production
started decreasing in 1970. It is hard to believe that the latest fracking “fix”
is going to turn things around. While US-48 states crude oil production has
shown a 25% increase since 2006, this production is still only 39% of the 1970
amount, and about equal to 1942 production.
Highlights Peak Oil Conference June 2012 Vienna
Very informative summary of the 2012 ASPO
conference in Austria, with video links to the presentations by many prominent
speakers such as Prof Dr Hirsch, Jeremy Leggett and Kjell Alektett.
Peak Oil is Real and will stunt economic growth
(published originally by PS Public Service 15 March)
During the last century, society squandered 500 million years of
captured sunlight on drag races, traffic jams, private jets and overheated
office buildings - warns campaign group
Oil company cheerleaders proclaiming huge supplies of oil are
dead wrong. Peak oil is as real as rain, and it is here now. Not 2050. Not 2020.
Now. Oil production has been flat since 2005. This is not by choice. The
producers cannot increase production because new fields cannot keep pace with
declining production from old fields. The plateau is the top of the global
depletion curve. Furthermore, this end of energy growth only accounts for
volume. Energy quality and net-energy are falling like stones as environmental
devastation increases. Every producing oil field on earth is in decline, unless
it is brand new, and peak discoveries are well behind us. Meanwhile, the
aggregate decline rate appears to be about 5 per cent per year. To maintain
world production, we would need to bring a new Saudi Arabia – equivalent to
three billion barrels annually - into full production every three years. There
exists on earth not one single promising field that remotely approaches those
When you read or hear about "10 billion barrels" of oil
discovered somewhere, here is how to think about that - a third of that is
probably not recoverable or entirely illusory. The recoverable portion will
require a billion barrels of oil equivalent energy to produce; in the tar sands
it would take three billion barrels. What is left, about five or six billion
barrels, equates to about a two-month supply for humanity. Two months. We will
not "run out of oil" because, simply, we will never get it all. What petroleum
geologists point out is that all oil fields have a production curve, a peak and
a decline. Therefore, the earth's total supply has a peak and decline.
But that is not all, the volume decline includes a decline in
quality and net energy. As oil fields reach old age, energy returned on energy
invested plummets and production costs soar for a lower quality product. Over
the last century, oil producers have high-graded earth's energy storehouse, and
the best net-energy reserves disappeared 70 years ago. Oil in its heyday – the
1930 and 1940s – produced 100:1 net-energy, a hundred barrels out for one barrel
of energy invested. Today, oil fields range from 20:1 to 10:1. The United States
average is 11:1. We are now digging into the 3:1 net-energy tar sands. Energy
expert Howard Odum warned of the net energy curve in the 1970s and geologist
Marion King Hubbert graphed the oil decline in the 1950s.
Charles Hall, at the State University of New York, has
calculated that it is not possible to run our complex civilisation on a
net-energy below about 6:1 - because society needs that reserve energy to run
its transportation, agriculture, health systems and so forth. The tar sands 3:1
net energy is simply pathetic. A salmon does better chasing herring. An Amish
farmer gets 10:1 net energy with hand tools. I suspect most of the industry
cheerleaders talking about "giant discoveries" and "energy gluts" know this.
Still, they spin every new oil discovery as an arrival in the Promised Land,
pump stock plays and promote their industry. In our world, that is legal. But it
is not really honest. In April 2011, chief economist of the International Energy
Agency Fatih Birol revealed what the industry knows: "We think that the crude
oil production has already peaked, in 2006."
And since the population is growing, peak oil per capita
occurred in 1979. We have now reached the absolute peak. Without increasing
energy sources, we cannot increase economic activity. We can print money and
harvest the earth's assets and make it look like growth – for a while – but the
piper will be paid. Nature shall not be mocked. In 2008, when the economy
appeared to be roaring and traders pitched mortgage-backed securities on
unsuspecting clients, energy production had ceased growing. As a result, the oil
price almost tripled from $50 per barrel to $147. This equated to a $3 trillion
increase to the world's annual energy bill, which sucked discretionary income
from every other market and helped crash the global economy.
When the economy collapsed, oil prices fell. But as economies
recover even slightly, the price will rise again since supply is restrained.
Blaming the US President Barack Obama for rising energy prices is another con
job. Blame nature. She just cannot make more of the stuff fast enough. During
the last century, society burned the best half of recoverable hydrocarbons that
represented 500 million years of captured sunlight; a one-time storehouse of
high quality, concentrated energy. We squandered it on drag races, traffic jams,
private jets and overheated office buildings. We burned this valuable asset and
called it "income." If you did that in your home, you would go bankrupt. Peak
oil is real. The consequences – at best – will be a slowly scaled-down
industrial civilisation. If we continue to ignore these facts, the consequences
will be far worse. Nature just is not sentimental.
The financial crises around the world - partly brought on by
rising oil prices - now feature in everyday headlines. Concerns about dwindling
energy supplies and irreversible climate change are pushed to the bottom of the
pile. This is not really a surprise. It's only when problems are staring
politicians just about right into the face that action is taken, but probably
too little too late. If the euro cannot be saved, how on earth is peak oil going
to be addressed?
time to refresh our memory on the almost insurmountable problems the world will
soon be faced with. I received this documentary for review, one of the best ones
I have seen.
I recently asked Prof Dr Colin Campbell, one of the most
respected energy analysts and geologists around, the following question:
Q: I recently read an article stating that the USA is about to
match or even overtake Saudi Arabia oil production as it approaches 10 mbpd due
to increasingly successful recovery techniques, mainly hydraulic fracturing &
horizontal drilling. Apparently, production at the Bakken formation has really
been ramped up. If this is correct, it means the USA production may surpass it's
1970's peak. Have all of us 'peak oilers' got the peak date wrong then by
decades due to new technologies being employed?
A: I think your query touches on the key issue of defining the
different categories of oil and gas. A failure to do so is the cause of much
confusion. I have come to recognise Regular Conventional Oil and Gas, which
excludes Heavy oils, tar sands, shale oil, oil shale etc Deepwater Oil and Gas
(>500m) Polar Oil and Gas NGL from gasplants Non-conventional gases (hydrates,
coalbed methane etc) The production of Regular Conventional from the USA peaked
in 1970 at 9.4 Mb/d and is now down to 3.4 Mb/d declining at about 5% a year.
If we include the Deepwater and Polar production peaked in
1970 at 9.6 Mb/d and has fallen to 5.5 Mb/d.
As you say attention has turned to so-called Shale Oil. It
refers mainly to sandstones and siltstones with some porosity but very low
permeability. These reservoirs are now being tapped by long range horizontal
wells and subjected artificial fracturing that improves the permeability in the
immediate vicinity of the wellbore. I am sure that the resource in the ground is
indeed very large, but I imagine that the productive life of a well is no more
than a matter of months, but they deliver a profit at oil prices above say about
$75 a barrel.
I imagine that the impact of this "Shale Oil" in the USA is to
ameliorate the overall decline rate of the other categories which I estimate as
follows (to be generously rounded) 2010 2.0% 2015 3.4% 2020 3.1% (steep decline
of deepwater starts) 2025 7.4% 2030 7.0% 2050 5.9%,
Oil price is clearly a critical factor. I think that prices
above about $100 dampen demand which in turn triggered the world financial
crash, which will probably mark The Greatest Depression, as we enter the Second
Half of the Oil Age when everything based on the cheap easy energy it provided
Another factor is that the current exporting countries are
consuming more internally and will likely restrict exports as they perceive Peak
Oil, preferring to keep as much as possible for their own future use, which
makes eminent sense.
So, I don't think that the Shale Oil will have a significant
impact over the longer term.
Why time is short now that we're passed peak oil Despite some recent
retreats in the oil price, could oil reach $200 or $300 by the end of 2012?
School kids face the end of oil, search for solutions When even
the IEA chief economist says no government is prepared for peak oil , we can be
forgiven for getting a little nervous about the economic and environmental
future of our kids.
Energy Crisis prices Persists Watching oil prices is a hard habit
to break, once formed. They're always moving up and down, sometimes for obvious
reasons and sometimes not.
America: Why aren't you protesting?
Iran's Southern Regions Producing 3 million Barrels of Oil Per Day
Having attended the ASPO Brussels 2011 peak oil conference, it
was evident that there are no new major developments in the peak
oil story. Recently, having some research myself into the dynamic relationship
between future decline rates, oil prices and effects on GDP between 2010-2030, I
am more and more inclined to believe that peak oil will change life as we know
it, but very gradually. Decline rates from the ASPO base case scenario will only
be around 1-2% annual between now and 2030, meaning the upward equilibrium in
oil prices and downward pressure on GDP will be very evident, but will not be of
apocalyptic proportions. In addition, a not insignificant amount of petrodollars
will be recycled, benefiting exporting economies. The peak and subsequent
decline in global oil production will hopefully curb exponential oil consumption
increases in (populous) non-OECD countries and the effects in OECD countries
will largely be economical in the beginning, while effects on food production
and population will not be relevant until into the second half on this century,
at least for the first world.
Wikileak Cables: Saudi cannot pump enough oil to keep lid on prices A US
diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter
have been overstated by nearly 40%, which ties up with Simmon's views and book
'Twilight in the Desert'. This would mean that big trouble is probably just
around the corner.
Middle East OPEC reserves overstated
With OPEC now holding nearly 78% of the world's remaining reserves, the
accuracy of their stated reserves have become a vital point of discussion, with
business-as-usual hanging by a very thin threat. If Matthew Simmons and Sadad
al-Husseini are to be believed and Saudi's reserves have been grossly
overstated, while their super giant Ghawar field may have hit terminal decline,
the world is at a turning point.
Peak Oil and the
Fate of Humanity
PDF article by Dutch civil engineer Hans Zandvliet
The International Energy Agency's new peak For two weeks now the
peak oil portion of cyberspace has been abuzz with commentary on the
International Energy Agency’s (IEA) newly released World Energy Outlook 2010.
Without missing a beat and without much explanation, the world’s leading
compiler of everything about energy has gone from denying that conventional oil
production will peak in our lifetime to saying it happened four years ago. Will
wonders never cease! Brilliant summary and commentary by Tom Whipple.
Airbus raises aircraft demand forecasts
So Airbus's and Boeing's know-all chief forecasters think there will be
between some 25.000 and 31.000 new planes delivered between now and 2029. Proof
that companies do not take into account peak oil and plan for a future with
business as usual. Have they not even taken note of the latest IEA's report
saying that peak oil happened in 2006? It is mind boggling, really.
Peak Oil: The future of government Another brilliant commentary by peak
oil expert Tom Whipple. He really captures the essence of peak oil.
Tipping Point: Near-term systematic
implications of a Peak in global Oil production: An Outline Review.
Found this article recently
that discusses collapse of civilization from a new angle, talking about linear
decline, oscillating decline and systematic collapse. Very interesting.
Experts Agree: We are facing the end of oil as we know it.
Economists, activists, technical experts and policymakers from
across the political spectrum gathered on October 7-9 to discuss the global
energy crisis. After 150 years of oil extraction; most major oil exporting
nations are well past their supply peaks, defined by scientists as “Peak Oil.”
At the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas’ (ASPO-USA) sixth annual
conference speakers offered a single, coherent picture of a world unprepared to
encounter energy limits, petroleum scarcity and the inevitable—and possibly
unprecedented—rise in prices.
Pension strikes continue in France as fears of fuel shortage rise
Peak Oil predictions
The Oil Peak has been reached
The alarm has sounded: the scarcity of oil will affect everyone, say
'Peak' oil is no longer debatable. The projections for the year, the
five-year period, or the decade when global oil production would start declining
"are now a part of history", says Luís de Sousa, member of ASPO-Portugal and
contributor to the blog "The Oil Drum", talking to the Expresso. "The period of
peak is already being lived. Predicting it is no longer relevant", he adds.
According to this specialist, the vast majority of the important
mathematical and accounting models of oil production used by entities
independent from the oil industry all point to a similar time period when oil
production reaches a maximum and begins to decline. This is a period of about a
decade centred between 2008 and 2010, and the maximum oil produced is between 78
and 85 million barrels daily.
Luís de Sousa emphasizes that since 2005 world liquids production has been
bound between 80 and 82 million barrels per day, clearly in agreement with those
models. This plateau "has been sustained by the increase of natural gas liquids,
with pure crude [petroleum] in decline since 2005".
Recently, the 'peak' has returned to the spotlight because of a secret
report by the Future Studies group of the German Centre for the Armed Forces
Transformation, a military think tank working for the Berlin Ministry of Defence.
The study was published by "Der Spiegel", causing considerable concern by those
less used to the issue and its geopolitical implications.
Oil Production to Peak in 2014, Scientists predict
Finally a comprehensive study, using sophisticated and multiple models, has
been carried out to try to predict the peak.
The scientists from Kuwait University and the Kuwait Oil Company adopted a
newer approach by including many Hubbert production cycles, or bell-shaped
curves showing the rise and fall of a non-recyclable resource. Earlier models
typically assumed just one production cycle, despite the fact that most
oil-producing nations have historically experienced more of a rollercoaster ride
Such production cycles reflect the influence of new technological innovations
in the oil industry, government regulations, economic conditions and political
events. The factors include the discovery of new oil deposits, the recent
economic recession and the rise of renewable energy
Britain faces 'oil crunch' within five years, Richard Branson warns
An oil crunch more serious than the financial crisis threatens to
strike Britain within five years, Sir Richard Branson and other business leaders
Haitians flee the city for new life in country side: A Peak Oil Scenario?
I wondered a few days ago why people had not started fleeing the city yet in
big numbers in search for food, water and shelter in the countryside. The
Guardian reported this morning that in fact a big exodus IS now under way and
initial monstrous shock of the earthquake, that left the 3 million residents of
the capital dazed and paralysed, has faded and been replaced by an urgent
instinct to flee, aiming to cross into a 'happier' nation. It has always been
suggested that this scenario was a real possibility in case of a quickly
deteriorating situation as a result of future oil shortages, but I was never
entirely convinced. In other words, if you seek a safe haven in the future once
oil supplies start to dwindle, don't be too close to major cities.
Note to website visitors
I have not had a chance recently to update this news page. It is very time
consuming to shift through all the peak oil news out there and publish the best
and most relevant stories. Matt Savinar from www.lifeafterthecrash.net does a
great job at doing this, although recently his attention has shifted
disproportionately from peak oil to the economic crisis. Peak Oil certainly is
still around the corner, prices are going upward again, and the fundamentals
have not changed a bit, other than that the actual peak may have been postponed
by a few years due to the slowdown in economic activity. However, this decline
has been matched by the slowdown in investments in the oil industry and the
future decline in oil production will only be sharper and more dramatic. To
repeat one of my favourite quotes:
The longer an event fails to happen, the easier it is to
assume it is not, while odds of occurrence rise (S.Marner).
website is not dead either, despite the lack of updates. A recent look at Google
diagnostics shows the site has almost 2000 inbound links, has been the recent
victim of a hacking attack (perhaps I should take this as a compliment) and is
visited daily by hundreds of people from all over the world.
Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit,
according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it
has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering
Campbell's Recent Response to recent IEA Report
I have always had great respect for Dr Campbell, one of the worlds preeminent
depletion analysts, and co-author of the 1998 Scientific American article, "The
End of Cheap Oil". He drafted a reply to the Guardian on these issues. Here
is Dr. Campbell's letter, which gives some relevant history as to how the oil
depletion debate has unfolded over time in the worlds energy agencies.
International Peak Oil Conference System Reset: Global Energy and the
While the issue of
oil depletion may have faded from the headlines, and demand dropped due
to economic malaise, the situation remains the same: our world may be at or very
close to peak oil production.
Recent data from the
International Energy Agency, and the revealing report of May 4, 2009 by
the respected investment firm of
Raymond James, support that conclusion. According to the
Raymond James report, "peak
oil on a worldwide basis seems to have taken place in early 2008", and "reaching
peak oil still represents a transformative moment in the history of the oil
market...it is only a matter of time before prices begin to reflect the reality
that oil scarcity may become a fact of life in the not-too-distant future."
Oct / Nov 2008
Oil Watch Monthly -
November 2008 In the boardrooms of OECD governments a new message is now
being heard. One of an upcoming oil shock starting in 2010/2011, with high oil
prices beyond 100 dollars per barrel. With that message the international energy
agency (IEA) has become the first major international institute to acknowledge
the certainty of an oil supply problem in the near term future.
IEA report on oil gets angry Opec reaction
World needs four new Saudi's
Oil crunch, securing the energy future On the 29th October 2008 at The
London Stock Exchange, eight leading UK companies launched a report warning that
a peak in cheap, easily available oil production is likely to hit by 2013
Hurricane destroys oil infrastructure; oil price falls Some very
wise words from our friend Richard Heinberg. Exactly the type of article I was
looking for to post, as it hits the nail on the head when it comes to the (in)
transparency and price mechanism that drive oil markets and prices. Indeed, oil
prices have fallen and with it the mass interest in the Peak Oil phenomenon. The
hits on this website have fallen, my webstore DVD stocks have suddenly stopped
shrinking rapidly and it is business as usual again in the 'real' world. Don't
be fooled by falling oil prices. Meanwhile, last summer I have finally become
the proud owner of a beautiful construction lot that looks like the garden of
Eden, tucked away in the hills in an undisclosed location in Latin America. Hope
time won't run out before I finish the building works.
Our dependence on oil -
Harming our environment AND our health
I was approached by
the Mesothelioma and
Asbestos Awareness Center and asked if I
could publish this article.
World's largest oilfield in Saudi to peak in 2009 Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer with 73% of all
incremental world demand being met by this country. The worrying fact is that 90% of their production comes from only 5 mega fields,
with the Ghawar field producing the most, which is the biggest field ever
discovered. Previous fears that this very mature superfield has been at risk of
unplanned production collapses are now gaining ground and a detailed document,
obtained from a person with access to Saudi oil officials, suggests that Saudi
Aramco's oil production simply have limits and the kingdom will be unable to
increase oil production on a sustained basis to meet our growing appetite for
oil. If that is indeed the case, I think it would be safe to say that from 2010
onwards or so we can start to witness the world as we know it slowly
disintegrating. I am an optimist at heart, but I fail to see any evidence that
such a deep crisis will not unfold imminently.
Simmons on CNBC predicting the Great American Disaster
Great wake-up call video / interview with famous oil expert Matt Simmons
making some dire predictions. Matt has researched this subject for many many
years, and has published books on this subject. He has the background and
experience to have a high degree of credibility. Although there is inevitably some speculation in some of
I think he will for the most part prove to be right. With this in mind, you
should watch this video, if not, you may have a reaction like the rest of the
people in the studio, one of utter disbelief and shock.
Some of the current oil production declines are and will be partly
offset by new production coming online. This link on Wikipedia sets out all
details. If you look in particular at the
chart here, it roughly ties up with the peak oil date of 2011 that I have
predicted. This is a very useful source of information, because it actually
quantifies new production capacity coming online and underscores quite well that
this will not be sufficient to offset future declines. Look at the
data here to give you a good idea of which countries in the world will
benefit from high oil prices. Perhaps Brazil is not such a bad place after oil
the frozen economy
Well written comment that provides some food for thought.
Dr Hirsch on CNBC predicting $500 a barrel Author of the famous
Hirsch report (Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk
Management), which was created by request for the US Department of Energy and
published -or rather 'released' in February 2005. The conclusions report was
peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel
prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely
mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.
Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have
substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of
The Economist: "this time it is serious" The Economist is predicting
(although perhaps the word 'extrapolating' would be more accurate) that change
is coming sooner than you might think.
NY Times: Is Doomsday Upon us? Thomas Malthus, a British economist and
demographer at the turn of the 19th century, is being recalled to duty. His
basic theory was that populations, which grow geometrically, will inevitably
outpace food production, which grows arithmetically. Famine would result. The
thought has underlain doomsday scenarios both real and imagined, from the Great
Irish Famine of 1845 to the Population Bomb of 1968.
Oil secret is starting to reach the masses. Photographed in Paris Metro
station on 21st June.
It is with much
sadness that an oil and food crisis are unfolding in a similar manner as I have
been predicting for the past three years. The Peak Oil documentary that is
available through this site "If the Oil Runs Out' explored a scenario of daily
rising oil prices and the impact on middle America, which was probably the most
accurate depiction I have seen to date. It shows a scenario of soaring oil
prices while people and businesses are desperately trying to hold on to
'business as usual'. Eventually, gas pumps are running dry, trucking companies
go out of business, people are putting up for sale their 4x4's after loosing
their job and things go from bad to worse. The documentary has a happy end,
which in the real world is highly unlikely. The number of optimists thinking that
high oil prices will provide an incentive to further boost production or
encourage the (sudden) development and implementation of alternatives is
certainly on the decrease (they are finally coming to their senses). What is
next? No one knows, but my guess is that we are entering a protracted phase of
transition - possibly lasting a few years - to much darker times and we can only
hope for the best. Enjoy life while you still can.
Oil: A global crisis The $200 a barrel predictions are now becoming
increasingly common in the mass media. People are quickly catching on to the
enfolding crisis. Many are still convinced the answer lies in addressing supply.
However, the most misunderstood is the law of exponential growth, which is
rarely ever mentioned. Even if global economic growth and demand for oil
contracts, as long as it is positive it is exponential. As long as the world
population grows, demand for food will remain exponential. Oil production growth
-if any- is linear. And this fundamental discrepancy is the basis of our
Saudi oil output rise would not solve US Problems
Bush said on Saturday that a hike in oil output by Saudi Arabia would not solve
American energy problems. Finally some wise words, except the part where he
thinks that aggressively expanding domestic exploration will solve the problem.
Oil Record Prices only seem to be on the up, and it is hardly making any
headlines anymore. Whether or not this is the beginning of the end and the Peak
Oil Crisis is already truly unfolding remains to be seen. I stick with my
2011-2012 estimate before things really start getting out of hand, but no one
knows for sure. The recent price rises are of the 'paper barrel' and not so much
yet the 'liquid barrel', driven by commodity speculators. Investors are surely
taking notice, and some observe that 'you cannot go wrong with oil'.
Shell Execs briefed on Peak Oil in 1956 When did Shell executives first
learn that the world would one day face the moment of peak oil, known to many as
Hubbert’s Peak? Answer: as far back as 1956 when M. King Hubbert delivered his
seminal speech to Shell employees predicting the day when oil reserves would
begin to decline.
OPEC monthly report
The Independent: We can't cling to crude: we should leave oil before it leaves
us Little new here for those already well informed, but the fact that
this article appeared in the Saturday issue of a leading UK newspaper is
interesting to say the least. Although we may not have yet fully reached global
peak oil, the fact that more and more people are talking about it is perhaps the
first sign of a change in public opinion, possibly resulting in more speculative
buying on the oil markets and pushing prices up even further.
White House: No good answer to energy ills That should come as no
surprise because a) they have simply ignored all warning signs for the last few
decades and b) it is too late now. This link is from the NYMEX commodity board,
which tend to disappear after some time. Therefore, here is the full text:
WASHINGTON, Mar 13, 2008 (UPI via COMTEX) -- No single answer is
satisfactory for U.S. consumers watching gasoline prices rise at the pump and
energy bills climb, a White House spokesman said Thursday.
"From our perspective, what we need to do is keep this economy growing and
focus on rising wages and job growth so that people can deal with the reality of
higher oil prices," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said during a news
The Bush administration is concerned about low-income Americans that use a
higher proportion of their income to pay for energy, he said. Programs such as
the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance Program is designed to help qualifying
people cope with higher prices.
"(But) our focus has to be on growing the U.S. economy, growing wages so that
people can deal with these (higher energy costs)," Fratto said, "because it is
going to take a long time to deal with changes and transformations in the energy
Time to get back into oil This article was published in February and I
was going to post it here that month. However, for various reasons I didn't get
the chance. Shame, now that oil is breaching even the $110 mark. However, the
article makes some interesting notes about market timing. Oil prices may retreat
again temporarily, which will be the time to invest again.
Investing in Energy Although now may not be the right time to buy into
oil or gold (you may consider and hope for a temporary future dip), here is an
interesting source for buying into Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). Although when
things get really tough, you may be better off holding actual physical gold &
silver. We are not in any way associated with this site, which looks a little
flashy, but these financial guys have been around for a while and are a decent
source of information.
Learning survival lessons from Russia Some excellent information and
great lessons that may possibly be very useful when taking into consideration
all peak oil survival strategies. First published on another peak oil website
(sorry Matt). It confirms the potential problems you may encounter if you are
going for the 'loner strategy', hoping to live off the land somewhere remotely,
hidden away from others.
Oil" headline in The Times For the first time ever, record
oil prices have made it to the front page as lead article in the printed
publication of one of the UK's leading newspapers The Times, reading "Oil
at $100 threatens to choke economy". Meanwhile, there is little evidence that
people are concerned. The Chrismast sales shoppers continue to fill the parking
garages, and business continues as usual. I can only hope that we still have a
small time window in which to reap the benefits of a fossil fuel world, enjoying
our families and life as we know it. I am growing more doubtful though how long
that time window is going to be.
Saudi Arabia delaying new projects Saudi Arabia is considered to be the
only oil producing nation in the world that has any spare capacity left, but the
national oil company Aramco have just announced that it is delaying the start of
production of a new field, putting into question Saudi's ability to continue to
meet increased world demand.
Oil Bosses warning on oil output Global Oil Production will never exceed
100 million barrels per day.
China's drive for wealth means end of our low-carbon dreams It is not in
our power to stop the Chinese locomotive; we should leave our fantasies behind,
acknowledge that carbon emissions and oil consumption will continue to grow and
Has World Oil Peaked?
Monthly report (PDF) concluding that it is still too early to tell whether
or not global production has peaked.
Review of DVD 'A Crude Awakening / The Oil Crash I had high
hopes and expectations for this DVD documentary by Basil Gelpe and Ray
McCormack, based on other reviews and the awards it has won. Having been
involved in Peak Oil for almost three years now and having seen all other
documentaries, this is by far the least-inspiring and I struggled to stay awake.
The DVD disc itself has written on it 'We are running out and we don't have a
plan', which appears to be evidence that the producers did not quite grasp the
concept of Peak Oil, or if they did this is an incorrect statement to
communicate to the public. It is of course not the oil running out that is the
problem, it is an issue of lack of further growth followed by a production
decline. The documentary is an incoherent collection of a series of black & white
archive material and interviews with experts, some which fail to come across as
very credible. Although I have a lot of respect for Matt Savinar's work (he runs the number one website on Peak Oil) his appearance in a green navy-like
behind shelves stacked with survival food & kits could easily erode his credibility
to the un-initiated. The documentary fails to get to the point across quickly, and
lacks the power and persuasion that documentaries like for example Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth
or Crude Impact exhibit. I think most people are quite aware of the
importance of oil to our society, and spending 30+ minutes highlighting it with
historical footage and artistic shots is hardly inspiring in my view. This is a very important and
serious subject, and I have yet to find a documentary that gets the point across
in an extremely simply and powerful way, and that you can't wait to show to your family and
Woodpellet Heating & Peak Oil This is probably the first time that
I see a company using Peak Oil to highlight a product's advantages. Wood pellets are
a cheap alternative to gas, oil and other fuels to heat your house. The only
problem is that you still depend on a truck delivering it to your house once a
year and you still depend on the factories making these pellets, as well as
regular maintenance of the pellet burner. Still something to consider though.
Boeing 747 to fly on biofuel in 2008 Air New Zealand has announced it
will carry out the first commercial trial of a bio-fuelled Boeing 747. Of
course, one of the problems with mass-producing bio-fuels from conventional
crops is that it competes with food crops for arable land. Furthermore, even if
airlines manage to achieve a high degree of autonomy by taking control of their
energy source, they cannot operate and function in isolation. As a whole, the
airline industry will continue to rely on the vast surrounding fossil
fuel-intensive infrastructure for support and continued economic prosperity and
$100 oil anyone? This article, calling the peak-oil crowd that "merry
band of doomsters", notes that $100+ a barrel is now no longer more far fetched
than oil at $50. The author concludes this in light of experts' reports at the
annual ASPO conference and oil's recent historical record prices.
Oil may average $100 in 2007 (Q4) Oil may average $100 in the fourth quarter of 2007, as demand outpaces supply,
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's chief economist said.
Shell ex-CEO: "Sleepwalking into a Crisis" Peak Oil is slowly
penetrating the global consciousness. Oil is approaching $82 a barrel, banks
are in crisis, the public is loosing confidence and ice caps are melting at
alarming rates. The clocks going back an hour in just a month's time is just an
echo of the darker times ahead.
Alan Greenspan's claim that the Iraq war is about oil U.S. Defense
Secretary Robert Gates on Sunday rejected former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan's statement that the Iraq war "is largely about oil."
Conference Cork The annual ASPO conference is starting on Monday. A DVD
of professional broadcast quality will be available for 125 Euros.
Start of a banking crisis? Thousands of nervous customers waited for
hours outside branches of Northern Rock, Britain's fifth largest mortgage bank, on Saturday desperate to withdraw
savings after it was forced to seek emergency funds to weather the global credit
Oil Hits New Records It is unclear if record oil prices are the clearest
sign yet that the world is fast approaching peak oil, or if speculation and and
non-fundamental factors are to blame.
OPEC's 11th September meeting OPEC is unlikely to raise oil
production at the meeting in Vienna, despite oil prices continuing their recent
U.S. Envoy: Middle East turmoil could cause World War Upheaval in
the Middle East and Islamic civilisation could cause another world war, the U.S.
ambassador to the United Nations was quoted as saying in an Austrian newspaper
interview published on Monday
Economics of Oil
Very interesting article by a London based portfolio manager about
the economics of oil. If you have some background in (micro) economics, it will
make easier reading. If not, it is still a good piece to read to have some more
understanding of the underlying fundamentals of oil prices and demand.
Stock Market Crash and Depression
If you read this article about the stock market crash that fueled
the 1930's Depression, there are some striking parallels with current situation
America is currently in: an over-inflated stock market, misplaced trust in
shares, highly mortgaged homes and several interest rate rises. Add to this
the looming energy crisis, and we have a recipe for a disaster that may make the
Great Depression look like a walk in the park.
Peak Bread Niall Ferguson from the Daily Telegraph warns us about
future food shortages, and makes a very important observation about how the
disparity between exponential population growth versus only linear food crops
growth means we are now approaching a new era of food scarcity and misery.
An Eco-System of One's
This May article in Vanity Fair will be an eye-opener for many,
showing the global impact and resource wastage of the average American and other
Westerner's routines. I was unable to link to the original article, so here is
the PDF file (apologies to Vanity Fair). It makes one realize again how
difficult or impossible it will be to change our way of life before change will
be forced upon us...
This years Annual International ASPO conference is shaping up to be a
truly significant event and for a number of reasons. Not least of which is that
this will be the first time Ireland will host the event, home to ASPO's founder,
Dr. Colin Campbell. And September is a wonderful time of year to visit the
International Energy Agency predicts trouble ahead
In a stunning interview for the French Le Monde, Fatih
Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (i.e. the
intergovernmental body created after the oil shocks of the 70s to coordinate the
West's reaction to energy crises) effectively says that peak oil is just around
the corner, and that without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015.
This is the second time in just a
few weeks that a top figure discusses in a frank interview the enormous energy
challenges that the world is facing. In June (see below), Shell's CEO Jeroen van
der Veer made similar observations. In the interview, Birol's admittance that
"biofuels are not based on any kind of rationality", sounds all too eerily
Coal-to-Coal: America's energy solution?
In a recent study published by JP Morgan, it was estimated that it would
take the construction of 70 to 100 plants using Coal-to-Gas (CTL) technology to
substitute all the oil currently being imported by the USA from OPEC. The
analysis also indicated that the average per-barrel production cost for such
plants would be in the area of $48, including the cost of carbon dioxide
removal; a key environmental consideration given the fact that a standard CTL
plant produces about 2.5-times the carbon dioxide that a standard refinery puts
the financial world catching onto Peak Oil? Portfolio Manager and
Research Analyst Greg Silberman discusses gold stocks versus oil stocks and is
surprisingly a believer in Peak Oil. He writes: "“I’m a believer in the
Commodity Super-cycle and in Peak Oil but gosh, just tell me what (and when) I
should be buying!” Is the financial world slowly catching on?
City ploughing its money into farmland In the UK, a great battle is
under way to own a piece of the countryside. Investors see farmland as a
potential hedge in world gripped by food price inflation. Indeed, farmland's
price rises - across the world - are likely to accelerate once a Peak Oil
crisis arrives and food production falters.
Oil Giants admit to PEAK OIL!!
ExxonMobil and Shell have warned the world of a pending energy crisis, "which
cannot be solved by renewables." In an interview with The Times, CEO Jeroen van
der Veer calls for a 'reality check' and greater investment in energy
efficiency. He says that "the world is blinding itself to the reality of its
energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing
countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power. Contrary to
public perceptions, renewable energy is not the silver bullet that will soon
solve all our problems."
Likewise, ExxonMobil's CEO Tillerson points to a widespread failure by
policymakers to understand the extent to which the aspirations of people in
developing countries are fuelling growth in demand for energy. He says that
world energy demand would rise by 45 per cent by 2030, and fossil fuels – oil,
natural gas and coal – were the only energy sources of sufficient size,
adaptability and affordability to meet the world’s needs.
Comment by Editor: Shell's CEO Van de Veer appears to have
understood the Peak Oil problems very well and has skillfully brought them to
the public eye. Indeed, his proposition to put more emphasis on fuel efficiency
is one step in the right direction. It is an outrage that in this day and age,
the average American car has the same or even worse fuel efficiency than one or
two decades ago. Only a few months ago, the fuel gauge of the Chevrolet that I
rented was visibly and steadily decreasing while only just leaving the airport
car park! Compare that to the VW Tdi I rented a few days ago, whose fuel gauge
refused to move for the first part of the trip before decreasing by about 1/10th
of an inch after driving 100 miles or so while the onboard trip computer showed
an average mpg of around 60 (US) / 71 (UK).
From Peak Oil to Dark Age (Business Week) Peak Oil is gaining momentum in
Food Price rises force a cut in biofuels Finally some evidence and
admittance by a national government that biofuels aren't the answer to the
world's energy problems. China's communist rulers have now announced a moratorium
on the production of ethanol from corn and other food crops, at the very time
that Western leaders are rushing to embrace alternative food-based fuel
technology. It reflects the growing reality that food-based alternative
fuel is far more expensive both economically and environmentally than Western
politicians are likely to admit.
OPEC warning on Biofuels OPEC have said that it may cut long-term investment
to expand oil production capacity because of recent trends of countries to
switch more towards biofuels. OPEC state that otherwise it could have "too much
excess idle capacity"!...
Biofuels will struggle to provide the additional energy requirements of growing
economies, demand and consumption patterns, especially in light of the marginal
net energy value they deliver at the expensive of soil and other natural
resources. It is even more delusional of OPEC to conclude that biofuels will
replace current declines in conventional oil AND provide excess energy capacity
to the point where it could threaten the conventional oil supply market. It
almost appears more and more that OPEC are covering up their inability to
produce 'oil on demand'. If in the future they are unable to meet demand, they
can just blame it on the biofuels. It doesn't take much to work out that even in
the best case scenario, taking into account biofuels growth and world energy
demand, OPEC will need to produce a lot more oil to balance supply & demand to
avoid a huge shock.
World Spare Oil Capacity Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Petroleum
Review, talks with GPM's Julian Darley about the latest spare capacity estimates
for the Middle East and the world (audio)
The Challenge of Peak Oil Let's start June with a superb article by
Richard Heinberg, which really captures the essence of Peak Oil and the
challenges that lie ahead. He ends the article with "Ecological thinkers have
been proposing transformations along these lines for decades. Now such proposals
are no longer just good ideas; they are survival strategies. Nature has given us
two options: adapt or die. The sooner we choose the former path, the better the
Zimbabwe in crisis This African country will face collapse within 6 months.
It is a good example what the dire consequences are of a country in crisis, and
what we may see during a future peak oil crisis when production collapses gain
Newsletter (PDF) Includes interesting part questioning why Peak Oil is
politically incorrect. It starts with "Don't you feel that at times that the
issue of Peak Oil is not only ignored by the media but that it is, actually,
politically incorrect?" Google trends show not only that there is more interest
in Global Warming than Peak Oil, but also that Global Warming is gaining in
popularity whereas the trend in Peak Oil is opposite. It also concludes that
apparently, most people cannot focus their minds at the same time on two issues
that are perceived as different and unrelated.
Blowing Green Smoke Another excellent article by the legendary peak
oil author James Howard Kunstler.
Peak Oil Thriller / Novel Written by Alex Scarrow,
this new book (release July) is probably more of a sneak preview of events to
come than a novel when the world faces energy starvation. Civilization is more
fragile than you think. Use the link to watch the frightening trailer.
Report Part II The first Hirsch report was a very excellent and
comprehensive study into the Peaking of oil and its consequences, specifically
for the USA. This second report is a follow up and very worthwhile to read. It
sums up and re-iterates the problems of peaking very well. Prof Hirsch reminds
us how quickly oil wells, without much notice, can peak. The
proposed mitigation strategies, based on an analysis for the US Department of Energy,
considering tar sands, coal liquefaction, enhanced oil recovery and
gas-to-liquids are very questionable though and crucially fail to address the EROI
(Energy Return on Energy Invested). These "technologies" are very energy
intensive with only marginal net energy values and very serious environmental
we in the transition period to the defining Peak Oil moment? Absent of any
panic, the most likely scenario is probably one of gradual change, where
business carries on as usual. The world has great momentum, but once it stops,
a gallon, and America is driving more....Do you know of any
other product or resource of which more is consumed despite price rises? In
economics this is called 'reverse price elasticity'. This article proposes a
Preparing for Peak Oil According to the GAO (Government Accountability
Office), "Many studies indicate that oil production will peak between now and
2040." Eleven of the 20 studies referred to in the report show peak oil
production occurring now.
will overtake America this year as world's biggest green house gas emitter
In a seismic shift for the world, China will overtake the United States as the
biggest emitter of greenhouse gases this year, far earlier than thought, which
is an ominous sign that the global peak date may be moving forward. Of course,
the Chinese feel they should be entirely free to pursue economic growth, just as
western countries have done for 200 years. They also still have much lower oil
consumption and carbon emissions in per capita terms than do western nations.
However, with close to 1.5 billion inhabitants, ambitions to match living
standards of the US are simply not feasible in terms of our resource base, even
absent Peak Oil.
Atlantic orders new & more fuel efficient Boeing aircraft, that may eventually
run on bio-fuels. Virgin
Atlantic's Richard Branson definitely has long-term vision by having placed an
order of 43 new 787 Boeing Dreamliner aircraft, which will be 27% more fuel
efficient than their current Airbus aircraft. Virgin also confirmed that it is
joining with Boeing and the US engine manufacturer General Electric in a project
to develop a new generation of bio-fuels to power future aircraft. The aim is to
demonstrate the technology on a Boeing 747 jumbo next year. Jim McNerney, the
Boeing chairman, said that a number of options were being looked at for
producing the fuel, from soya beans and algae to grain and "cellulosic"
crops such as prairie grass. Until now, it had not been thought feasible to
produce an alternative aviation fuel, because conventional fuels such as ethanol
freeze at altitudes higher than 15,000 feet. Sir
Richard predicted a "major breakthrough" in the technology in the next
two to three years, which could make bio-powered aircraft a commercial reality
by the time its 787s start to be delivered in 2011.
course, even if Virgin succeeds by 2011 running their entire aircraft fleet on
high percentage biofuel blends, the question remains if people are going to have
a need and the money to travel, once we pass global Peak Production, as
economies start to falter. Nevertheless, change may be gradual and a strategy of
'sustained and profitable retreat' may indeed pay-off, while most other airlines
will struggle to survive. Even after an oil and economic crash, there will
continue to be people with money to spend. In addition, an airline such as
Virgin relies heavily on a supporting infrastructure, around their route
network, that will continue to depend for the most part on fossil fuels.
Geopolitical Feedback-loops in Peak Oil
Living Planet Report ESSENTIAL reading for Peak Oil Survival
Strategists. The ecological debtor and creditor country map is a useful guide
for relocation purposed in light of the coming crisis.
Planet Report "How we can
live well within the means of one planet? This is the main research question of
the 21st century," says Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, Executive Director of
Global Footprint Network, The question is a primary focus of this year's Living
US Government needs plan for oil peak The U.S.
government is in need of a strategy to minimize potentially dire economic
consequences after worldwide oil production peaks and begins to decline, the
investigative arm of Congress said Thursday.
at $35? Many have said,
including myself, that when we approach peak oil we will see oil prices
accelerating upwards. The recent decline in oil prices has come as a shock to
many of the peak oil analysts, but is not all that surprising. The problem with
oil prices is that they are in no way a reflection of the medium and long term
supply and demand fundamentals. Oil prices are largely determined by speculation
(the illiquid barrel) and Wall Street can only look ahead a few months, maybe a
year at most, and so they base their 'wisdom' on a mild winter, hurricane
activity and arbitrary predictions in demand. As long as there is spare capacity
in the world, even if it is close to zero, oil prices could fluctuate wildly,
with actual demand and supply setting a price floor. Unfortunately, lower oil
prices fail to provide the much needed confirmation for many that peak oil is as
real as death and taxes, and business-as-usual will carry on. It is almost like
the calm before the storm, with the world keeping and accelerating its momentum and
setting ourselves up for an even
deeper crisis once we do run out of spare capacity and we approach the
relentless slope on the other side of the curve.
to live when the Peak Oil Crisis unfolds Very
interesting article discussing the advantages and disadvantages of living near a
city or living in isolation before and during a Peak Oil Crisis.
only a very few will succeed - under the best of circumstances - in a self
sufficient lifestyle in an isolated retreat. Halfway measures won't do, but we
do not really know what the full measures are, and in this lies the paradox. The
self-sufficient strategy relies on some very extensive and informed planning,
requiring man-on-the-moon skills, with a large dosage of luck. Your success will
probably depend on remaining undiscovered, and the hardships placed upon you and
your family will be unprecedented, and that is just one aspect.
One of the most
popular peak oil websites recently published some very extensive 'disaster
preparation' plans in a series. It is difficult to understand for me why someone that
appears to understand Peak Oil so well decided to put these articles on his
website, when these preparations all have severely limited value in the real
world of Peak Oil. All of these plans were based on having to survive for between 2-10
days or so in case of hurricanes, earthquakes, virus outbreaks etc. In other
words, once the threat subsides and rebuilding work starts, life goes on again,
and everyone will get back again on their feet, unlike Peak Oil. Another
published article on the same website seemed to encourage everyone to pack a
backpack and venture out, giving a (false) romantic impression that during
the future crisis we will live like nomads, venturing out into the 'open' and running into
other like-minded survivalists / backpackers, who will point us in the right
direction of a friendly farmer in the next village before they make their
separate ways, while singing the sound-of-music songs. I could hardly imagine
such a scenario, and just the thought of being on the road for many years or
even months - especially with a family-, not knowing what danger is around the next corner, while being hungry and
cold, just doesn't seem like a life worth living. Admittedly, it is difficult to
come up with a strategy that has a good chance of success and will fit most
scenarios, as the scope and timing of the crisis are unknown, but there must be
something better than that. After two years of study on the subject, my conclusion
remains that we need to be in or migrate to a small community (not the suburb
type of community where you can leave your doors unlocked and help out your neighbors
by buying their kid's scout cookies), preferably in a part
of the world that will be relatively immune to the consequences of peak oil....God
Oil Survival / Solutions Some
excellent ideas here. As far as debt and mortgages are concerned, many believe
the best thing to do is pay them off more quickly. However, one must realize
that even during a severe crisis, banks and financial institutions will continue
to exist for a while and if you cannot make your mortgage payments - even if you
only have a year left on it - you will loose the house. This is exactly what
happened during the Great Depression. So my advice is to either have a fixed
rate 100% mortgage (or close to it) with no or little capital repayments, and
sufficient cash to keep payments up, or have no mortgage. Nothing in between.
Equally important is to know whether your house is in the right place to start
with. No point in having your city apartment mortgage paid off when its value
will be reduced to anywhere between null and zero....
more simply and sustainably The Mucuxi people are a
prime example of how a group can live simply and sustainably and they appear
sufficiently isolated geographically to perhaps remain immune to a peak oil
crisis. Perhaps we can learn a great deal from them.
Preview of a Post Oil Era The majority of us will
struggle even trying to imagine what life will be like after transitioning to a
post oil era. Without our everyday luxuries and conveniences, just trying to
survive will be one of the hardest realities we will have to cope with. It may
not be all that bad though........
This link has some very interesting
previews of an episode of Worlds Apart. Stripped of their material possessions
and hectic schedules, the Palmer family find themselves undergoing a dramatic
transformation while developing deep bonds and respect for people whose
drastically different lifestyle can trace its roots back thousands of years.
Especially the preview 'Saying Goodbye' is touching and sheds a different light
onto Peak Oil Survival.
NDVI as an Indicator
of Drought for Strategic Relocation purposes Satellite remote sensors can quantify what fraction of the photosynthetically
active radiation is absorbed by vegetation. The NDVI (Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index) value can be averaged over time to establish the
"normal" growing conditions for the vegetation in a given region for a
given time of the year and can be used to characterize the health of the
vegetation there, relative to the norm.
Researchers at NASA and NOAA have two decades of NDVI data over the entire
globe. Comparing this month’s or this year’s NDVI data with the 20-year
average reveals whether the productivity in a given region is typical, or
whether the plant growth is significantly more or less productive. Periods of
reduced plant growth are due to a lack of precipitation or exceptionally cold
temperatures (which can delay or cut short the growing season) and clouds.
alleged 100,000 acre hideway in Paraguay
President Bush preparing robustly for a Post-Oil Era? Paraguay happened to rank
in the top 35 countries of desirability in my Peak Oil Survival Guide, based on
arable land per capita, energy self sufficiency (100%), while the country has
one of the largest underground water reserves (Guarani Aquifer).
of Tranquility in England. This map
of England is a very interesting one from a Peak Oil Survival point of view, for
those focusing on this part of the world. The top five elements of tranquility
used for the map were a natural landscape, birdsong, the ability to experience
peace and quiet, woodland and seeing the stars. It is not difficult to see the
parallel with Peak Oil Strategic Relocation.
Price to stay between $50-$75 (PDF file) into 2007 Thorough
analysis from Peak Oil Organization Netherlands, showing peak date beyond 2012.
show how the modern world has forgotten ancient virtues It
is very easy to see the relevance of this article with peak oil. The way of life
of the Amish is admirable and they will be best prepared for a post-oil era.
moves into ecological overdraft today Humanity slides
into the red today and begins racking up an ecological overdraft driven by
unsustainable exploitation of the world's resources, according to a report by
the sustainable development organisation Global Footprint Network. For North
Americans the "ecological footprint" - the land and water a person
needs to sustain their lifestyle - is 9.6 hectares (23.7 acres). For the typical
African it is 1.4 hectares.
Imports 95.8 million tons of crude in first 8 months
Heinberg talks about Peak Oil (video)
starts to look like a plateau Data from EIA shows that
the world supplies of oil were down with an average of 0,18 Mb/d for the 7 first
months of 2006 relative to the same period of 2005, and that the supplies of
regular oil and lease condensate so far still had a top back in December 2005.
to become net energy importer by 2007
costs imperil Canada's Oil Sands hopes
for a crash Some excellent ideas and views on Peak Oil
Oil in 2008?
warns of oil price hike if sanctions imposed
China sign agreement on ethanol production
Natural Resource Prices
Sands: Burning Energy to Produce it
Crude Oil Flows
Conference 5 ITALY Notes from
the ASPO July conference in Rimini.
Oil and Aviation ASPO and Dr Colin Campbell have been so kind as to
support the article I wrote for an international Aviation magazine and refer to
it in their ASPO June Newsletter. Email me if you wish to have a PDF copy of
industry hits peak production Leading expert Bakhtiari has warned
that the oil industry is reaching peak production. Perhaps many of the peak date
predictions have all been too conservative and we are in the first phase of the
transition to an uncertain future.
acknowledges Peak Oil
Transport Association to tackle oil price challenge at annual meeting
offer to Iran
techo-fixed for Peak Oil
will replace dollar for euro as oil currency
costs, competition, financial woes reshaping airline industry
to offer oil to Europe's poor
A sudden plunge in production
Battle for oil could set the world aflame
Fertilizer prices expected to keep climbing
Oil on our doorsteps Evidence is emerging that global
oil production is about to peak
Death Threat for Oil theft! That just about sums up the world's
insane addiction to oil
to put $400 million into making bio-fuels
Oil and Investments
York City best place to be when oil hits $100 Cities with an excellent transportation system in place are
attractive when according to a survey. But be aware, in the medium or long term,
you are probably best off far away from population concentrations.
Peak Oil make you rich? Does it matter?
Spends its ways to 28 Eiffel Towers: made out of pure gold
US - Venezuela Energy Showdown
Peak Oil Crisis: Rationing by Price
Documentary on Oil Crisis
Times: Peak Oil almost certainly correct
and India to test oil demand with price reform China
& India consumers will start to suffer as government announces phasing out
of fuel subsidies due to high prices.
Oil Peak Passed on 16 December 2005: watch the crisis unfold Don't
be fooled by a temporary lull in oil price rises. The longer an event fails to
happen, the easier it is to assume it is not, while odds of occurrence rise (S.Marner).
Lovelock: It is too late to save civilization as we know it.
threatens to cut off oil exports to US
Oil Newsletter 1st Quarter 2006 (PDF)
there a cure for oil addiction?
says US must kick oil habit US government has drawn up
plans to break foreign oil dependency, but it's probably too little too
bangs out hollow message on an oil can
Savings rate sinks to lowest rate since the Great Depression This key economic indicator, in combination with high oil
prices and inflation, may be the first sign that of real trouble ahead.
for $262 a barrel? Conclusion of
some of the world's most successful investors
of Methanol will help the world go around Japanese scientists have
revealed a revolutionary fuel cell that will transform the the global effort to
commercialize these cells. However, there are serious doubts about the rate at
which the technology can be commercialized, and realistically this is still 20
years away, which once again shows that nothing can replace fossil fuels in time
at the scale required to avert a very deep global crisis.
SECRET: What they don't want you to know about the coming Oil Crisis Peak
Oil is hitting the mainstream, which is a disturbing & chilling reality
check. Highly regarded British national newspaper the Independent has today
issued an Extra report stating that it's time to face the fact that the supplies
we so depend on are going to run out. It says:
most basic of foundations of our assumption of future economic well-being is
rotten. Our society is in a state of collective denial that has no precedent in
Prices may hit $100 within near-future
ahead, by Jim Kunstler
January letter (PDF)
Alert in Britain
shift in global energy system
Risk of Total Collapse It is a genuine possibility
plans $26 billion 'economic city' This project is part
of Saudi's effort to take advantage of the new oil boom
covers Peak Oil
offers 'Man on the Moon' problem solving to combat oil decline
the Oil Money?
December Newsletter (pdf)
discussed in Washington DC
over Indian Oil Output
considering re-opening mines to avert energy crisis
Snap hits gas prices
offers cheap oil to poor Americans Once again,
Venezuela's president seems to be ahead of the game
field starts to run out of oil An incredible
revelation by the Kuwait Oil Company
Oil War: A World Peace Story From the American
Thinktank Community Solution (PDF file)
The Coming Crisis and the Decline of Aviation
I have written for one of the biggest aviation sites in the world
Silver could be the new Gold The Sunday Times underlines
my recommendations found in the Peak
Oil Survival Guide
November Newsletter (PDF) President Hugo Chavez is probably the only country leader
that has a plan 'B' for Venezuela!
Africa banks on new family of Nuclear Reactors
Oil Crisis: We must prepare now (Richard Heinberg)
Warning as world faces $17 trillion energy bill
Challenge" The full presentations from the
Energy Institute's conference 'Oil Depletion
oil running out
running on Biodiesel mix by 2010
price of gold predicts bout of carnage in bond markets
Surviving the City
Zambia: Riot police
confront anger over fuel crisis
Peak Oil Crisis: Waiting for
Policy or Disaster
Doubt raised on Saudi
Ability to pump more oil
Five Minute Guide: Oil
Peak Oil Signal the End?
of the three-day week
Crisis At current trends, the Chinese would require 99 million barrels a day by 2031
world production is 84 bpd)
for the lights to go out The
Sunday Times raises the possibility of a new Dark Age
is no 'Plan B'
Oil Production Peaked? (USAtoday)
Peak Oil Problem: Running out sooner than we think
Oil Hollywood Movie
New York Conference
gets wake up call to turn off the lights
Coming Oil Crisis (Forbes)
Rita causes record damage to oil rigs
China looks at $24bn coal-to-oil plan
Project delays 'drive up oil prices'
$380 Oil? Banks talk Oil
Peak Oil Crisis: The first casualty
IMF warns of global risk as oil price nears record
Cut in R&D spending poses threat to world oil supplies
The failed war for oil
Britain risks catastrophe if it remains dependent on Middle East oil
Branson to build refinery: Virgin Oil
Fuel price increases as serious as 1970's
UK facing power black outs this winter
Talk of Oil Decline moving into Mainstream
Oil Could Surge to $200
Oil, Housing worries threaten American Dream
Peak Oil Crisis
Oil May climb to $500 within 6 months
A Fit of (Oil) Peak
Central America on maximum alert due to Oil Crisis
Other news & resources
Rising energy prices outstrip capacity of users to absorb them in consumer charges
Has Production Peaked? (BBC)
Oil and Conflict - A natural mix
Experts debate 'peak oil'
Oil: Is the End at hand? (CNN)
Analysts fear crisis in three years
Experts hear Oil Depletion fear
The coming economic depression