January 2015

Many readers have asked me to update the website, not only because this is long overdue but more so because of the recent oil price developments. A fresh website on a more modern platform (rather than my stone age old Frontpage editor running in a Windows emulation on my Mac).

If the oil price drops, that means there are more then enough supplies for the foreseeable future, right? Yes and No. Find below my explanation as an economist on the recent phenomenon. Fundamentals have barely changed, peak oil is still as certain as gravity, but the time scale remains uncertain, but is most definitely in terms of decades rather then centuries.

Oil price Elasticity:

Demand for oil is very inelastic to changes in price and the IMF has estimated this (short term) elasticity of demand (Εd) to be in the region of -0.05. This means for every 10% rise in the oil price, demand will decrease by only 0.5%. Vice versa, if in the short term there is an oversupply (like the current case), a large price reduction is required to have a meaningful effect on demand; a 50% reduction of the oil price would be required to reduce demand by only 2.5%! This is exactly what has happened in the past year or so. This 'inelasticity' of demand for oil is why some have predicted oil prices anywhere between $200-$500 after peak oil when supplies are well on their way down. It takes a huge price change to make a small change in demand. In the long-run the elasticity will increase especially if trends in the oil price is perceived to be lasting (estimated at around -0.5).

And that's not all of the story. The International Energy Agency notes that oil prices are determined by the marginal barrel; the last few percentage points of supply that can make the difference between shortage and comfort. This marginal barrel effectively determines the price for all the other barrels, the nature of which can vary considerably over time. Furthermore, the paper barrel also has to be taken into consideration - bought or sold by risk managers or speculators on the liquid derivative market, rather than just the illiquid wet barrel. Marginal crude supply is not the same as marginal demand, but they meet through transformation in the refinery sector, opening up a complex relationship between refinery economics, product demand, crude grades, sulphur content and regulation. Matching the marginal barrel of supply to demand is not always easy to sustain on a continuous basis. Are you still with me? Probably not, but what the above shows is that today's oil price is no indicator for long-term supply capacity.

What is worrisome is that the recent collapse in oil price - and subsequent lack of investment in the oil industry infrastructure AND transportation infrastructure - will set the scene for an even steeper future increase in the oil price once we are well past peak oil production. A perfect storm may be brewing, that is moving very very slowly.

By Alex Kuhlman, copyright 2015:


October 2013

It's gone fairly quiet on the peak oil front. It's obvious from even my website traffic statistics that people are less concerned. The world has now focused on fracking, which is bringing some temporary relief. It's hard to keep the peak oil momentum going when there is no current crisis and when optimism is awash in the media about alleged endless supplies of fossil fuels. Yet, the price of oil still hoovers around $110, so how can that be explained?

The timing of peak oil and how it will all play out in the future is difficult to predict with any accuracy, and is heavily influenced by economic and political factors. The new fracking frontier has probably postponed the peak date by a few years, but it seems highly unlikely that the problem has been pushed as far as the next generation, but I hope I am wrong.

Is Peak Oil Dead?

Interview with Martin Payne. Peak Oil is still alive & kicking, but it’s a forest and trees situation. It’s hard not to get caught up in the fracking boom. In a handful of places the boom is real, people are doing well, and it’s floating a lot of boats. But you have to go back and look at the big picture, look at the scale of these plays. These are “trees”  and they give us a temporary reprieve from what Bob Hirsch called the severe consequences of not taking enough action proactively with respect to peak oil. The question is will these plays “fix” peak oil? The answer is no.

April 2013

Don't fall for the shale Boom Hype  

In this article:

  • Why we shouldn't talk about energy independence

  • What the media is failing to report about the "massive" Shale discoveries

  • How oil analysts are getting the economics wrong

  • Why we could see $200 a barrel Oil in the Near Future

  • The relationship between energy and the economy

  • Why peak oil is not a defunct theory

  • How tight oil is being oversold

  • How price, not technology, has unlocked boom reserves

  • Why it's about conservation now, not new technology

  • Why we should be concerned about another financial meltdown

America will not become energy self sufficient

USA shale's current and potential maximum production are less than 10% of USA daily consumption. Current production at the over hyped Bakken field, although providing an enormous boost to the local economy, hovers around 0.5 million barrels per day compared to 20 million barrels per day US daily consumption or around 2.5%.

Peak Oil is here and there's no magic to counter it  

This where we stand, and it's a fairly bleak view: Peak oil is almost here, and nothing new (with the possible but unlikely exception of Iraq) is coming online anytime soon and while the clock is ticking - forward movement on developing renewable energy resources has been sadly inadequate. In the meantime, the idea that shale reservoirs will lead the US to energy independence will soon enough be recognized as unrealistic hype. There are no easy solutions, no viable quick fixes, and no magic fluids.


September 2012

Cheap Oil is an incontrovertible fact MUST READ ARTICLE (The Times)

As the worlds continues business-as-usual, battling against an economic downward spiral, more evidence emerges that the global peak oil is imminent. Barclays Capital expects a “monster” effect this quarter as the crude market tightens by 2.4m barrels a day (bpd), with little extra supply in sight. Goldman Sachs said the industry is chronically incapable of meeting global needs. “It is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand,

Economists, politicians and the public will continue to deny and ignore the facts, pointing to other factors as the root causes of the state of the economy. Now more than ever, countries like the USA need leaders that are capable of understanding our predicament and lead onto a new path forward.


July 2012

Evidence that Oil Limits are leading to limits to GDP Growth

Excellent article from our friends at the Oildrum showing the relationship between oil supplies & prices and GDP growth. Few economists and governments around the world actually realize or would acknowledge that there is a very strong link between stagnating world supply and the poor state of many (oil importing) economies around the world. We may well be approaching the limits to economic growth.

There has been much hoopla in the United States press about supposed growth in oil supply as a result of new onshore techniques–fracking and other enhanced oil recovery–which are affecting US crude oil production. However, it's important to note that many new or revived supplies mostly just offset declines in other fields. The fact remains that growth in world oil supply has been worrisome for many for roughly 40 years, since US oil production started decreasing in 1970. It is hard to believe that the latest fracking “fix” is going to turn things around. While US-48 states crude oil production has shown a 25% increase since 2006, this production is still only 39% of the 1970 amount, and about equal to 1942 production.

Highlights Peak Oil Conference June 2012 Vienna

Very informative summary of the 2012 ASPO conference in Austria, with video links to the presentations by many prominent speakers such as Prof Dr Hirsch, Jeremy Leggett and Kjell Alektett.


March 2012

Peak Oil is Real and will stunt economic growth

(published originally by PS Public Service 15 March)

During the last century, society squandered 500 million years of captured sunlight on drag races, traffic jams, private jets and overheated office buildings - warns campaign group

Oil company cheerleaders proclaiming huge supplies of oil are dead wrong. Peak oil is as real as rain, and it is here now. Not 2050. Not 2020. Now. Oil production has been flat since 2005. This is not by choice. The producers cannot increase production because new fields cannot keep pace with declining production from old fields. The plateau is the top of the global depletion curve. Furthermore, this end of energy growth only accounts for volume. Energy quality and net-energy are falling like stones as environmental devastation increases. Every producing oil field on earth is in decline, unless it is brand new, and peak discoveries are well behind us. Meanwhile, the aggregate decline rate appears to be about 5 per cent per year. To maintain world production, we would need to bring a new Saudi Arabia – equivalent to three billion barrels annually - into full production every three years. There exists on earth not one single promising field that remotely approaches those requirements.

When you read or hear about "10 billion barrels" of oil discovered somewhere, here is how to think about that - a third of that is probably not recoverable or entirely illusory. The recoverable portion will require a billion barrels of oil equivalent energy to produce; in the tar sands it would take three billion barrels. What is left, about five or six billion barrels, equates to about a two-month supply for humanity. Two months. We will not "run out of oil" because, simply, we will never get it all. What petroleum geologists point out is that all oil fields have a production curve, a peak and a decline. Therefore, the earth's total supply has a peak and decline.

But that is not all, the volume decline includes a decline in quality and net energy. As oil fields reach old age, energy returned on energy invested plummets and production costs soar for a lower quality product. Over the last century, oil producers have high-graded earth's energy storehouse, and the best net-energy reserves disappeared 70 years ago. Oil in its heyday – the 1930 and 1940s – produced 100:1 net-energy, a hundred barrels out for one barrel of energy invested. Today, oil fields range from 20:1 to 10:1. The United States average is 11:1. We are now digging into the 3:1 net-energy tar sands. Energy expert Howard Odum warned of the net energy curve in the 1970s and geologist Marion King Hubbert graphed the oil decline in the 1950s.

Charles Hall, at the State University of New York, has calculated that it is not possible to run our complex civilisation on a net-energy below about 6:1 - because society needs that reserve energy to run its transportation, agriculture, health systems and so forth. The tar sands 3:1 net energy is simply pathetic. A salmon does better chasing herring. An Amish farmer gets 10:1 net energy with hand tools. I suspect most of the industry cheerleaders talking about "giant discoveries" and "energy gluts" know this. Still, they spin every new oil discovery as an arrival in the Promised Land, pump stock plays and promote their industry. In our world, that is legal. But it is not really honest. In April 2011, chief economist of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol revealed what the industry knows: "We think that the crude oil production has already peaked, in 2006."

And since the population is growing, peak oil per capita occurred in 1979. We have now reached the absolute peak. Without increasing energy sources, we cannot increase economic activity. We can print money and harvest the earth's assets and make it look like growth – for a while – but the piper will be paid. Nature shall not be mocked. In 2008, when the economy appeared to be roaring and traders pitched mortgage-backed securities on unsuspecting clients, energy production had ceased growing. As a result, the oil price almost tripled from $50 per barrel to $147. This equated to a $3 trillion increase to the world's annual energy bill, which sucked discretionary income from every other market and helped crash the global economy.

When the economy collapsed, oil prices fell. But as economies recover even slightly, the price will rise again since supply is restrained. Blaming the US President Barack Obama for rising energy prices is another con job. Blame nature. She just cannot make more of the stuff fast enough. During the last century, society burned the best half of recoverable hydrocarbons that represented 500 million years of captured sunlight; a one-time storehouse of high quality, concentrated energy. We squandered it on drag races, traffic jams, private jets and overheated office buildings. We burned this valuable asset and called it "income." If you did that in your home, you would go bankrupt. Peak oil is real. The consequences – at best – will be a slowly scaled-down industrial civilisation. If we continue to ignore these facts, the consequences will be far worse. Nature just is not sentimental.


December 2011

The financial crises around the world - partly brought on by rising oil prices - now feature in everyday headlines. Concerns about dwindling energy supplies and irreversible climate change are pushed to the bottom of the pile. This is not really a surprise. It's only when problems are staring politicians just about right into the face that action is taken, but probably too little too late. If the euro cannot be saved, how on earth is peak oil going to be addressed?

Perhaps it's time to refresh our memory on the almost insurmountable problems the world will soon be faced with. I received this documentary for review, one of the best ones I have seen.


September 2011

I recently asked Prof Dr Colin Campbell, one of the most respected energy analysts and geologists around, the following question:

Q: I recently read an article stating that the USA is about to match or even overtake Saudi Arabia oil production as it approaches 10 mbpd due to increasingly successful recovery techniques, mainly hydraulic fracturing & horizontal drilling. Apparently, production at the Bakken formation has really been ramped up. If this is correct, it means the USA production may surpass it's 1970's peak. Have all of us 'peak oilers' got the peak date wrong then by decades due to new technologies being employed?

A: I think your query touches on the key issue of defining the different categories of oil and gas. A failure to do so is the cause of much confusion. I have come to recognise Regular Conventional Oil and Gas, which excludes Heavy oils, tar sands, shale oil, oil shale etc Deepwater Oil and Gas (>500m) Polar Oil and Gas NGL from gasplants Non-conventional gases (hydrates, coalbed methane etc) The production of Regular Conventional from the USA peaked in 1970 at 9.4 Mb/d and is now down to 3.4 Mb/d declining at about 5% a year.

If we include the Deepwater and Polar production peaked in 1970 at 9.6 Mb/d and has fallen to 5.5 Mb/d.

As you say attention has turned to so-called Shale Oil. It refers mainly to sandstones and siltstones with some porosity but very low permeability. These reservoirs are now being tapped by long range horizontal wells and subjected artificial fracturing that improves the permeability in the immediate vicinity of the wellbore. I am sure that the resource in the ground is indeed very large, but I imagine that the productive life of a well is no more than a matter of months, but they deliver a profit at oil prices above say about $75 a barrel.

I imagine that the impact of this "Shale Oil" in the USA is to ameliorate the overall decline rate of the other categories which I estimate as follows (to be generously rounded) 2010 2.0% 2015 3.4% 2020 3.1% (steep decline of deepwater starts) 2025 7.4% 2030 7.0% 2050 5.9%,

Oil price is clearly a critical factor. I think that prices above about $100 dampen demand which in turn triggered the world financial crash, which will probably mark The Greatest Depression, as we enter the Second Half of the Oil Age when everything based on the cheap easy energy it provided contracts.

Another factor is that the current exporting countries are consuming more internally and will likely restrict exports as they perceive Peak Oil, preferring to keep as much as possible for their own future use, which makes eminent sense.

So, I don't think that the Shale Oil will have a significant impact over the longer term.

C. Campbell


July 2011

Why time is short now that we're passed peak oil  Despite some recent retreats in the oil price, could oil reach $200 or $300 by the end of 2012?

School kids face the end of oil, search for solutions  When even the IEA chief economist says no government is prepared for peak oil , we can be forgiven for getting a little nervous about the economic and environmental future of our kids.

Energy Crisis prices Persists  Watching oil prices is a hard habit to break, once formed. They're always moving up and down, sometimes for obvious reasons and sometimes not.

America: Why aren't you protesting?

Iran's Southern Regions Producing 3 million Barrels of Oil Per Day


Apr 2011

Having attended the ASPO Brussels 2011 peak oil conference, it was evident that there are no new major developments in the peak oil story.  Recently, having some research myself into the dynamic relationship between future decline rates, oil prices and effects on GDP between 2010-2030, I am more and more inclined to believe that peak oil will change life as we know it, but very gradually. Decline rates from the ASPO base case scenario will only be around 1-2% annual between now and 2030, meaning the upward equilibrium in oil prices and downward pressure on GDP will be very evident, but will not be of apocalyptic proportions. In addition, a not insignificant amount of petrodollars will be recycled, benefiting exporting economies. The peak and subsequent decline in global oil production will hopefully curb exponential oil consumption increases in (populous) non-OECD countries and the effects in OECD countries will largely be economical in the beginning, while effects on food production and population will not be relevant until into the second half on this century, at least for the first world.  


Mar 2011

Wikileak Cables: Saudi cannot pump enough oil to keep lid on prices A US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%, which ties up with Simmon's views and book 'Twilight in the Desert'. This would mean that big trouble is probably just around the corner.

Middle East OPEC reserves overstated  With OPEC now holding nearly 78% of the world's remaining reserves, the accuracy of their stated reserves have become a vital point of discussion, with business-as-usual hanging by a very thin threat. If Matthew Simmons and Sadad al-Husseini are to be believed and Saudi's reserves have been grossly overstated, while their super giant Ghawar field may have hit terminal decline, the world is at a turning point.

Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity  PDF article by Dutch civil engineer Hans Zandvliet

Dec 2010

The International Energy Agency's new peak  For two weeks now the peak oil portion of cyberspace has been abuzz with commentary on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) newly released World Energy Outlook 2010. Without missing a beat and without much explanation, the world’s leading compiler of everything about energy has gone from denying that conventional oil production will peak in our lifetime to saying it happened four years ago. Will wonders never cease! Brilliant summary and commentary by Tom Whipple.

Airbus raises aircraft demand forecasts  So Airbus's and Boeing's know-all chief forecasters think there will be between some 25.000 and 31.000 new planes delivered between now and 2029. Proof that companies do not take into account peak oil and plan for a future with business as usual. Have they not even taken note of the latest IEA's report saying that peak oil happened in 2006? It is mind boggling, really.

Peak Oil: The future of government  Another brilliant commentary by peak oil expert Tom Whipple. He really captures the essence of peak oil.

Nov 2010

Tipping Point: Near-term systematic implications of a Peak in global Oil production: An Outline Review. Found this article recently that discusses collapse of civilization from a new angle, talking about linear decline, oscillating decline and systematic collapse. Very interesting.

Global Energy Experts Agree: We are facing the end of oil as we know it. Economists, activists, technical experts and policymakers from across the political spectrum gathered on October 7-9 to discuss the global energy crisis. After 150 years of oil extraction; most major oil exporting nations are well past their supply peaks, defined by scientists as “Peak Oil.” At the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas’ (ASPO-USA) sixth annual conference speakers offered a single, coherent picture of a world unprepared to encounter energy limits, petroleum scarcity and the inevitable—and possibly unprecedented—rise in prices.


Oct 2010

Pension strikes continue in France as fears of fuel shortage rise

Peak Oil predictions

The Oil Peak has been reached BREAKING NEWS

The alarm has sounded: the scarcity of oil will affect everyone, say analysts

'Peak' oil is no longer debatable. The projections for the year, the five-year period, or the decade when global oil production would start declining "are now a part of history", says Luís de Sousa, member of ASPO-Portugal and contributor to the blog "The Oil Drum", talking to the Expresso. "The period of peak is already being lived. Predicting it is no longer relevant", he adds.

According to this specialist, the vast majority of the important mathematical and accounting models of oil production used by entities independent from the oil industry all point to a similar time period when oil production reaches a maximum and begins to decline. This is a period of about a decade centred between 2008 and 2010, and the maximum oil produced is between 78 and 85 million barrels daily.

Luís de Sousa emphasizes that since 2005 world liquids production has been bound between 80 and 82 million barrels per day, clearly in agreement with those models. This plateau "has been sustained by the increase of natural gas liquids, with pure crude [petroleum] in decline since 2005".

Recently, the 'peak' has returned to the spotlight because of a secret report by the Future Studies group of the German Centre for the Armed Forces Transformation, a military think tank working for the Berlin Ministry of Defence. The study was published by "Der Spiegel", causing considerable concern by those less used to the issue and its geopolitical implications.

Oil Production to Peak in 2014, Scientists predict BREAKING NEWS

Finally a comprehensive study, using sophisticated and multiple models, has been carried out to try to predict the peak.

The scientists from Kuwait University and the Kuwait Oil Company adopted a newer approach by including many Hubbert production cycles, or bell-shaped curves showing the rise and fall of a non-recyclable resource. Earlier models typically assumed just one production cycle, despite the fact that most oil-producing nations have historically experienced more of a rollercoaster ride in production.

Such production cycles reflect the influence of new technological innovations in the oil industry, government regulations, economic conditions and political events. The factors include the discovery of new oil deposits, the recent economic recession and the rise of renewable energy

Britain faces 'oil crunch' within five years, Richard Branson warns


An oil crunch more serious than the financial crisis threatens to strike Britain within five years, Sir Richard Branson and other business leaders have warned.

Haitians flee the city for new life in country side: A Peak Oil Scenario?

I wondered a few days ago why people had not started fleeing the city yet in big numbers in search for food, water and shelter in the countryside. The Guardian reported this morning that in fact a big exodus IS now under way and that the initial monstrous shock of the earthquake, that left the 3 million residents of the capital dazed and paralysed, has faded and been replaced by an urgent instinct to flee, aiming to cross into a 'happier' nation. It has always been suggested that this scenario was a real possibility in case of a quickly deteriorating situation as a result of future oil shortages, but I was never entirely convinced. In other words, if you seek a safe haven in the future once oil supplies start to dwindle, don't be too close to major cities.


Nov 2009

Note to website visitors

I have not had a chance recently to update this news page. It is very time consuming to shift through all the peak oil news out there and publish the best and most relevant stories. Matt Savinar from does a great job at doing this, although recently his attention has shifted disproportionately from peak oil to the economic crisis. Peak Oil certainly is still around the corner, prices are going upward again, and the fundamentals have not changed a bit, other than that the actual peak may have been postponed by a few years due to the slowdown in economic activity. However, this decline has been matched by the slowdown in investments in the oil industry and the future decline in oil production will only be sharper and more dramatic. To repeat one of my favourite quotes:

The longer an event fails to happen, the easier it is to assume it is not, while odds of occurrence rise (S.Marner).

My website is not dead either, despite the lack of updates. A recent look at Google diagnostics shows the site has almost 2000 inbound links, has been the recent victim of a hacking attack (perhaps I should take this as a compliment) and is visited daily by hundreds of people from all over the world.

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

Colin Campbell's Recent Response to recent IEA Report

I have always had great respect for Dr Campbell, one of the worlds preeminent depletion analysts, and co-author of the 1998 Scientific American article, "The End of Cheap Oil". He drafted a reply to the Guardian on these issues. Here is Dr. Campbell's letter, which gives some relevant history as to how the oil depletion debate has unfolded over time in the worlds energy agencies.


June 2009

ASPO 2009 International Peak Oil Conference System Reset: Global Energy and the New Economy

While the issue of oil depletion may have faded from the headlines, and demand dropped due to economic malaise, the situation remains the same: our world may be at or very close to peak oil production. Recent data from the International Energy Agency, and the revealing report of May 4, 2009 by the respected investment firm of Raymond James, support that conclusion. According to the Raymond James report, "peak oil on a worldwide basis seems to have taken place in early 2008", and "reaching peak oil still represents a transformative moment in the history of the oil is only a matter of time before prices begin to reflect the reality that oil scarcity may become a fact of life in the not-too-distant future."


Oct / Nov 2008

Oil Watch Monthly - November 2008 In the boardrooms of OECD governments a new message is now being heard. One of an upcoming oil shock starting in 2010/2011, with high oil prices beyond 100 dollars per barrel. With that message the international energy agency (IEA) has become the first major international institute to acknowledge the certainty of an oil supply problem in the near term future.

IEA report on oil gets angry Opec reaction  

World needs four new Saudi's

The Oil crunch, securing the energy future On the 29th October 2008 at The London Stock Exchange, eight leading UK companies launched a report warning that a peak in cheap, easily available oil production is likely to hit by 2013

Sept 2008

Hurricane destroys oil infrastructure; oil price falls  Some very wise words from our friend Richard Heinberg. Exactly the type of article I was looking for to post, as it hits the nail on the head when it comes to the (in) transparency and price mechanism that drive oil markets and prices. Indeed, oil prices have fallen and with it the mass interest in the Peak Oil phenomenon. The hits on this website have fallen, my webstore DVD stocks have suddenly stopped shrinking rapidly and it is business as usual again in the 'real' world. Don't be fooled by falling oil prices. Meanwhile, last summer I have finally become the proud owner of a beautiful construction lot that looks like the garden of Eden, tucked away in the hills in an undisclosed location in Latin America. Hope time won't run out before I finish the building works.

Our dependence on oil - Harming our environment AND our health I was approached by the Mesothelioma and Asbestos Awareness Center and asked if I could publish this article.

July 2008

World's largest oilfield in Saudi to peak in 2009 Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer with 73% of all incremental world demand being met by this country. The worrying fact is that 90% of their production comes from only 5 mega fields, with the Ghawar field producing the most, which is the biggest field ever discovered. Previous fears that this very mature superfield has been at risk of unplanned production collapses are now gaining ground and a detailed document, obtained from a person with access to Saudi oil officials, suggests that Saudi Aramco's oil production simply have limits and the kingdom will be unable to increase oil production on a sustained basis to meet our growing appetite for oil. If that is indeed the case, I think it would be safe to say that from 2010 onwards or so we can start to witness the world as we know it slowly disintegrating. I am an optimist at heart, but I fail to see any evidence that such a deep crisis will not unfold imminently.

Matt Simmons on CNBC predicting the Great American Disaster Great wake-up call video / interview with famous oil expert Matt Simmons making some dire predictions. Matt has researched this subject for many many years, and has published books on this subject. He has the background and experience to have a high degree of credibility. Although there is inevitably some speculation in some of his predictions, I think he will for the most part prove to be right. With this in mind, you should watch this video, if not, you may have a reaction like the rest of the people in the studio, one of utter disbelief and shock.

Oil Mega projects Update Some of the current oil production declines are and will be partly offset by new production coming online. This link on Wikipedia sets out all details. If you look in particular at the chart here, it roughly ties up with the peak oil date of 2011 that I have predicted. This is a very useful source of information, because it actually quantifies new production capacity coming online and underscores quite well that this will not be sufficient to offset future declines. Look at the data here to give you a good idea of which countries in the world will benefit from high oil prices. Perhaps Brazil is not such a bad place after oil for emigration.

Welcome to the frozen economy Well written comment that provides some food for thought.


June 2008

Dr Hirsch on CNBC predicting $500 a barrel Author of the famous  Hirsch report (Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management), which was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published -or rather 'released' in February 2005. The conclusions report was that "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."

The Economist: "this time it is serious" The Economist is predicting (although perhaps the word 'extrapolating' would be more accurate) that change is coming sooner than you might think.

NY Times: Is Doomsday Upon us? Thomas Malthus, a British economist and demographer at the turn of the 19th century, is being recalled to duty. His basic theory was that populations, which grow geometrically, will inevitably outpace food production, which grows arithmetically. Famine would result. The thought has underlain doomsday scenarios both real and imagined, from the Great Irish Famine of 1845 to the Population Bomb of 1968.

The Peak Oil secret is starting to reach the masses. Photographed in Paris Metro station on 21st June.

May 2008

It is with much sadness that an oil and food crisis are unfolding in a similar manner as I have been predicting for the past three years. The Peak Oil documentary that is available through this site "If the Oil Runs Out' explored a scenario of daily rising oil prices and the impact on middle America, which was probably the most accurate depiction I have seen to date. It shows a scenario of soaring oil prices while people and businesses are desperately trying to hold on to 'business as usual'. Eventually, gas pumps are running dry, trucking companies go out of business, people are putting up for sale their 4x4's after loosing their job and things go from bad to worse. The documentary has a happy end, which in the real world is highly unlikely. The number of optimists thinking that high oil prices will provide an incentive to further boost production or encourage the (sudden) development and implementation of alternatives is certainly on the decrease (they are finally coming to their senses). What is next? No one knows, but my guess is that we are entering a protracted phase of transition - possibly lasting a few years - to much darker times and we can only hope for the best. Enjoy life while you still can.

Oil: A global crisis The $200 a barrel predictions are now becoming increasingly common in the mass media. People are quickly catching on to the enfolding crisis. Many are still convinced the answer lies in addressing supply. However, the most misunderstood is the law of exponential growth, which is rarely ever mentioned. Even if global economic growth and demand for oil contracts, as long as it is positive it is exponential. As long as the world population grows, demand for food will remain exponential. Oil production growth -if any- is linear. And this fundamental discrepancy is the basis of our problem.

Saudi oil output rise would not solve US Problems Bush said on Saturday that a hike in oil output by Saudi Arabia would not solve American energy problems. Finally some wise words, except the part where he thinks that aggressively expanding domestic exploration will solve the problem. 

Yet another Oil Record Prices only seem to be on the up, and it is hardly making any headlines anymore. Whether or not this is the beginning of the end and the Peak Oil Crisis is already truly unfolding remains to be seen. I stick with my 2011-2012 estimate before things really start getting out of hand, but no one knows for sure. The recent price rises are of the 'paper barrel' and not so much yet the 'liquid barrel', driven by commodity speculators. Investors are surely taking notice, and some observe that 'you cannot go wrong with oil'.

Shell Execs briefed on Peak Oil in 1956 When did Shell executives first learn that the world would one day face the moment of peak oil, known to many as Hubbert’s Peak? Answer: as far back as 1956 when M. King Hubbert delivered his seminal speech to Shell employees predicting the day when oil reserves would begin to decline.

OPEC monthly report

March 2008

The Independent: We can't cling to crude: we should leave oil before it leaves us Little new here for those already well informed, but the fact that this article appeared in the Saturday issue of a leading UK newspaper is interesting to say the least. Although we may not have yet fully reached global peak oil, the fact that more and more people are talking about it is perhaps the first sign of a change in public opinion, possibly resulting in more speculative buying on the oil markets and pushing prices up even further.

White House: No good answer to energy ills That should come as no surprise because a) they have simply ignored all warning signs for the last few decades and b) it is too late now. This link is from the NYMEX commodity board, which tend to disappear after some time. Therefore, here is the full text:  

WASHINGTON, Mar 13, 2008 (UPI via COMTEX) -- No single answer is satisfactory for U.S. consumers watching gasoline prices rise at the pump and energy bills climb, a White House spokesman said Thursday.

"From our perspective, what we need to do is keep this economy growing and focus on rising wages and job growth so that people can deal with the reality of higher oil prices," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said during a news briefing.

The Bush administration is concerned about low-income Americans that use a higher proportion of their income to pay for energy, he said. Programs such as the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance Program is designed to help qualifying people cope with higher prices.

"(But) our focus has to be on growing the U.S. economy, growing wages so that people can deal with these (higher energy costs)," Fratto said, "because it is going to take a long time to deal with changes and transformations in the energy markets."

Time to get back into oil This article was published in February and I was going to post it here that month. However, for various reasons I didn't get the chance. Shame, now that oil is breaching even the $110 mark. However, the article makes some interesting notes about market timing. Oil prices may retreat again temporarily, which will be the time to invest again.

Investing in Energy Although now may not be the right time to buy into oil or gold (you may consider and hope for a temporary future dip), here is an interesting source for buying into Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). Although when things get really tough, you may be better off holding actual physical gold & silver. We are not in any way associated with this site, which looks a little flashy, but these financial guys have been around for a while and are a decent source of information.


January 2008

Learning survival lessons from Russia Some excellent information and great lessons that may possibly be very useful when taking into consideration all peak oil survival strategies. First published on another peak oil website (sorry Matt). It confirms the potential problems you may encounter if you are going for the 'loner strategy', hoping to live off the land somewhere remotely, hidden away from others.

"$100 Oil"  headline in The Times For the first time ever, record oil prices have made it to the front page as lead article in the printed publication of one of the UK's leading newspapers The Times, reading "Oil at $100 threatens to choke economy". Meanwhile, there is little evidence that people are concerned. The Chrismast sales shoppers continue to fill the parking garages, and business continues as usual. I can only hope that we still have a small time window in which to reap the benefits of a fossil fuel world, enjoying our families and life as we know it. I am growing more doubtful though how long that time window is going to be.

Saudi Arabia delaying new projects Saudi Arabia is considered to be the only oil producing nation in the world that has any spare capacity left, but the national oil company Aramco have just announced that it is delaying the start of production of a new field, putting into question Saudi's ability to continue to meet increased world demand.

November 2007

Oil Bosses warning on oil output Global Oil Production will never exceed 100 million barrels per day.


October 2007

China's drive for wealth means end of our low-carbon dreams It is not in our power to stop the Chinese locomotive; we should leave our fantasies behind, acknowledge that carbon emissions and oil consumption will continue to grow and plan accordingly.

Has World Oil Peaked? Monthly report (PDF) concluding that it is still too early to tell whether or not global production has peaked.

Review of DVD 'A Crude Awakening / The Oil Crash I had high hopes and expectations for this DVD documentary by Basil Gelpe and Ray McCormack, based on other reviews and the awards it has won. Having been involved in Peak Oil for almost three years now and having seen all other documentaries, this is by far the least-inspiring and I struggled to stay awake. The DVD disc itself has written on it 'We are running out and we don't have a plan', which appears to be evidence that the producers did not quite grasp the concept of Peak Oil, or if they did this is an incorrect statement to communicate to the public. It is of course not the oil running out that is the problem, it is an issue of lack of further growth followed by a production decline. The documentary is an incoherent collection of a series of black & white archive material and interviews with experts, some which fail to come across as very credible. Although I have a lot of respect for Matt Savinar's work (he runs the number one website on Peak Oil) his appearance in a green navy-like sweater behind shelves stacked with survival food & kits could easily erode his credibility to the un-initiated. The documentary fails to get to the point across quickly, and lacks the power and persuasion that documentaries like for example Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth or Crude Impact exhibit. I think most people are quite aware of the importance of oil to our society, and spending 30+ minutes highlighting it with historical footage and artistic shots is hardly inspiring in my view. This is a very important and serious subject, and I have yet to find a documentary that gets the point across in an extremely simply and powerful way, and that you can't wait to show to your family and friends.

Woodpellet Heating &  Peak Oil This is probably the first time that I see a company using Peak Oil to highlight a product's advantages. Wood pellets are a cheap alternative to gas, oil and other fuels to heat your house. The only problem is that you still depend on a truck delivering it to your house once a year and you still depend on the factories making these pellets, as well as regular maintenance of the pellet burner. Still something to consider though.


September 2007

Boeing 747 to fly on biofuel in 2008 Air New Zealand has announced it will carry out the first commercial trial of a bio-fuelled Boeing 747. Of course, one of the problems with mass-producing bio-fuels from conventional crops is that it competes with food crops for arable land. Furthermore, even if airlines manage to achieve a high degree of autonomy by taking control of their energy source, they cannot operate and function in isolation. As a whole, the airline industry will continue to rely on the vast surrounding fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure for support and continued economic prosperity and stability.

$100 oil anyone? This article, calling the peak-oil crowd that "merry band of doomsters", notes that $100+ a barrel is now no longer more far fetched than oil at $50. The author concludes this in light of experts' reports at the annual ASPO conference and oil's recent historical record prices.

Oil may average $100 in 2007 (Q4) Oil may average $100 in the fourth quarter of 2007, as demand outpaces supply, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's chief economist said.

Shell ex-CEO: "Sleepwalking into a Crisis" Peak Oil is slowly penetrating the global consciousness. Oil is approaching $82 a barrel, banks are in crisis, the public is loosing confidence and ice caps are melting at alarming rates. The clocks going back an hour in just a month's time is just an echo of the darker times ahead.

Alan Greenspan's claim that the Iraq war is about oil U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Sunday rejected former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's statement that the Iraq war "is largely about oil."

ASPO Conference Cork The annual ASPO conference is starting on Monday. A DVD of professional broadcast quality will be available for 125 Euros.

Start of a banking crisis? Thousands of nervous customers waited for hours outside branches of Northern Rock, Britain's fifth largest mortgage bank, on Saturday desperate to withdraw savings after it was forced to seek emergency funds to weather the global credit crunch

Oil Hits New Records It is unclear if record oil prices are the clearest sign yet that the world is fast approaching peak oil, or if speculation and and non-fundamental factors are to blame.


August 2007

OPEC's 11th September meeting OPEC is unlikely to raise oil production at the meeting in Vienna, despite oil prices continuing their recent surge.

U.S. Envoy: Middle East turmoil could cause World War Upheaval in the Middle East and Islamic civilisation could cause another world war, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations was quoted as saying in an Austrian newspaper interview published on Monday

The Economics of Oil  Very interesting article by a London based portfolio manager about the economics of oil. If you have some background in (micro) economics, it will make easier reading. If not, it is still a good piece to read to have some more understanding of the underlying fundamentals of oil prices and demand.

The 1929 Stock Market Crash and Depression  If you read this article about the stock market crash that fueled the 1930's Depression, there are some striking parallels with current situation America is currently in: an over-inflated stock market, misplaced trust in shares, highly mortgaged homes and several interest rate rises. Add to this the looming energy crisis, and we have a recipe for a disaster that may make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park.

Peak Bread  Niall Ferguson from the Daily Telegraph warns us about future food shortages, and makes a very important observation about how the disparity between exponential population growth versus only linear food crops growth means we are now approaching a new era of food scarcity and misery.

An Eco-System of One's Own  This May article in Vanity Fair will be an eye-opener for many, showing the global impact and resource wastage of the average American and other Westerner's routines. I was unable to link to the original article, so here is the PDF file (apologies to Vanity Fair). It makes one realize again how difficult or impossible it will be to change our way of life before change will be forced upon us...


July 2007

ASPO Conference 2007 This years Annual International ASPO conference is shaping up to be a truly significant event and for a number of reasons. Not least of which is that this will be the first time Ireland will host the event, home to ASPO's founder, Dr. Colin Campbell. And September is a wonderful time of year to visit the Emerald Isle.

International Energy Agency predicts trouble ahead In a stunning interview for the French Le Monde, Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (i.e. the intergovernmental body created after the oil shocks of the 70s to coordinate the West's reaction to energy crises) effectively says that peak oil is just around the corner, and that without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015.

This is the second time in just a few weeks that a top figure discusses in a frank interview the enormous energy challenges that the world is facing. In June (see below), Shell's CEO Jeroen van der Veer made similar observations. In the interview, Birol's admittance that "biofuels are not based on any kind of rationality", sounds all too eerily familiar.

Coal-to-Coal: America's energy solution? In a recent study published by JP Morgan, it was estimated that it would take the construction of 70 to 100 plants using Coal-to-Gas (CTL) technology to substitute all the oil currently being imported by the USA from OPEC. The analysis also indicated that the average per-barrel production cost for such plants would be in the area of $48, including the cost of carbon dioxide removal; a key environmental consideration given the fact that a standard CTL plant produces about 2.5-times the carbon dioxide that a standard refinery puts out.

Is the financial world catching onto Peak Oil? Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst Greg Silberman discusses gold stocks versus oil stocks and is surprisingly a believer in Peak Oil. He writes: "“I’m a believer in the Commodity Super-cycle and in Peak Oil but gosh, just tell me what (and when) I should be buying!” Is the financial world slowly catching on?

City ploughing its money into farmland In the UK, a great battle is under way to own a piece of the countryside. Investors see farmland as a potential hedge in world gripped by food price inflation. Indeed, farmland's price rises - across the world - are likely to accelerate once a Peak Oil crisis arrives and food production falters.


June 2007

Oil Giants admit to PEAK OIL!! ExxonMobil and Shell have warned the world of a pending energy crisis, "which cannot be solved by renewables." In an interview with The Times, CEO Jeroen van der Veer calls for a 'reality check' and greater investment in energy efficiency. He says that "the world is blinding itself to the reality of its energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power. Contrary to public perceptions, renewable energy is not the silver bullet that will soon solve all our problems."

Likewise, ExxonMobil's CEO Tillerson points to a widespread failure by policymakers to understand the extent to which the aspirations of people in developing countries are fuelling growth in demand for energy. He says that world energy demand would rise by 45 per cent by 2030, and fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – were the only energy sources of sufficient size, adaptability and affordability to meet the world’s needs.

Comment by Editor: Shell's CEO Van de Veer appears to have understood the Peak Oil problems very well and has skillfully brought them to the public eye. Indeed, his proposition to put more emphasis on fuel efficiency is one step in the right direction. It is an outrage that in this day and age, the average American car has the same or even worse fuel efficiency than one or two decades ago. Only a few months ago, the fuel gauge of the Chevrolet that I rented was visibly and steadily decreasing while only just leaving the airport car park! Compare that to the VW Tdi I rented a few days ago, whose fuel gauge refused to move for the first part of the trip before decreasing by about 1/10th of an inch after driving 100 miles or so while the onboard trip computer showed an average mpg of around 60 (US) / 71 (UK).

From Peak Oil to Dark Age (Business Week) Peak Oil is gaining momentum in the press....

Food Price rises force a cut in biofuels  Finally some evidence and admittance by a national government that biofuels aren't the answer to the world's energy problems. China's communist rulers have now announced a moratorium on the production of ethanol from corn and other food crops, at the very time that Western leaders are rushing to embrace alternative food-based fuel technology. It reflects the growing reality that food-based alternative fuel is far more expensive both economically and environmentally than Western politicians are likely to admit.

OPEC warning on Biofuels OPEC have said that it may cut long-term investment to expand oil production capacity because of recent trends of countries to switch more towards biofuels. OPEC state that otherwise it could have "too much excess idle capacity"!...

Biofuels will struggle to provide the additional energy requirements of growing economies, demand and consumption patterns, especially in light of the marginal net energy value they deliver at the expensive of soil and other natural resources. It is even more delusional of OPEC to conclude that biofuels will replace current declines in conventional oil AND provide excess energy capacity to the point where it could threaten the conventional oil supply market. It almost appears more and more that OPEC are covering up their inability to produce 'oil on demand'. If in the future they are unable to meet demand, they can just blame it on the biofuels. It doesn't take much to work out that even in the best case scenario, taking into account biofuels growth and world energy demand, OPEC will need to produce a lot more oil to balance supply & demand to avoid a huge shock.

World Spare Oil Capacity  Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Petroleum Review, talks with GPM's Julian Darley about the latest spare capacity estimates for the Middle East and the world (audio)

The Challenge of Peak Oil  Let's start June with a superb article by Richard Heinberg, which really captures the essence of Peak Oil and the challenges that lie ahead. He ends the article with "Ecological thinkers have been proposing transformations along these lines for decades. Now such proposals are no longer just good ideas; they are survival strategies. Nature has given us two options: adapt or die. The sooner we choose the former path, the better the outcome"

Zimbabwe in crisis This African country will face collapse within 6 months. It is a good example what the dire consequences are of a country in crisis, and what we may see during a future peak oil crisis when production collapses gain momentum.

ASPO June Newsletter (PDF) Includes interesting part questioning why Peak Oil is politically incorrect. It starts with "Don't you feel that at times that the issue of Peak Oil is not only ignored by the media but that it is, actually, politically incorrect?" Google trends show not only that there is more interest in Global Warming than Peak Oil, but also that Global Warming is gaining in popularity whereas the trend in Peak Oil is opposite. It also concludes that apparently, most people cannot focus their minds at the same time on two issues that are perceived as different and unrelated. 

Blowing Green Smoke  Another excellent article by the legendary peak oil author James Howard Kunstler.


May 2007

Peak Oil Thriller / Novel Written by Alex Scarrow, this new book (release July) is probably more of a sneak preview of events to come than a novel when the world faces energy starvation. Civilization is more fragile than you think. Use the link to watch the frightening trailer.

The Hirsch Report Part II The first Hirsch report was a very excellent and comprehensive study into the Peaking of oil and its consequences, specifically for the USA. This second report is a follow up and very worthwhile to read. It sums up and re-iterates the problems of peaking very well. Prof Hirsch reminds us how quickly oil wells, without much notice, can peak. The proposed mitigation strategies, based on an analysis for the US Department of Energy, considering tar sands, coal liquefaction, enhanced oil recovery and gas-to-liquids are very questionable though and crucially fail to address the EROI (Energy Return on Energy Invested). These "technologies" are very energy intensive with only marginal net energy values and very serious environmental problems.

Are we in the transition period to the defining Peak Oil moment? Absent of any panic, the most likely scenario is probably one of gradual change, where business carries on as usual. The world has great momentum, but once it stops, it stops......

$4 a gallon, and America is driving more....Do you know of any other product or resource of which more is consumed despite price rises? In economics this is called 'reverse price elasticity'. This article proposes a fuel tax. 

Preparing for Peak Oil According to the GAO (Government Accountability Office), "Many studies indicate that oil production will peak between now and 2040." Eleven of the 20 studies referred to in the report show peak oil production occurring now.


Apr 2007

China will overtake America this year as world's biggest green house gas emitter In a seismic shift for the world, China will overtake the United States as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases this year, far earlier than thought, which is an ominous sign that the global peak date may be moving forward. Of course, the Chinese feel they should be entirely free to pursue economic growth, just as western countries have done for 200 years. They also still have much lower oil consumption and carbon emissions in per capita terms than do western nations. However, with close to 1.5 billion inhabitants, ambitions to match living standards of the US are simply not feasible in terms of our resource base, even absent Peak Oil. 

Virgin Atlantic orders new & more fuel efficient Boeing aircraft, that may eventually run on bio-fuels.  Virgin Atlantic's Richard Branson definitely has long-term vision by having placed an order of 43 new 787 Boeing Dreamliner aircraft, which will be 27% more fuel efficient than their current Airbus aircraft. Virgin also confirmed that it is joining with Boeing and the US engine manufacturer General Electric in a project to develop a new generation of bio-fuels to power future aircraft. The aim is to demonstrate the technology on a Boeing 747 jumbo next year. Jim McNerney, the Boeing chairman, said that a number of options were being looked at for producing the fuel, from soya beans and algae to grain and "cellulosic" crops such as prairie grass. Until now, it had not been thought feasible to produce an alternative aviation fuel, because conventional fuels such as ethanol freeze at altitudes higher than 15,000 feet. Sir Richard predicted a "major breakthrough" in the technology in the next two to three years, which could make bio-powered aircraft a commercial reality by the time its 787s start to be delivered in 2011.

Of course, even if Virgin succeeds by 2011 running their entire aircraft fleet on high percentage biofuel blends, the question remains if people are going to have a need and the money to travel, once we pass global Peak Production, as economies start to falter. Nevertheless, change may be gradual and a strategy of 'sustained and profitable retreat' may indeed pay-off, while most other airlines will struggle to survive. Even after an oil and economic crash, there will continue to be people with money to spend. In addition, an airline such as Virgin relies heavily on a supporting infrastructure, around their route network, that will continue to depend for the most part on fossil fuels.

Five Geopolitical Feedback-loops in Peak Oil


Mar 2007

Full Living Planet Report ESSENTIAL reading for Peak Oil Survival Strategists. The ecological debtor and creditor country map is a useful guide for relocation purposed in light of the coming crisis. 

Living Planet Report "How we can live well within the means of one planet? This is the main research question of the 21st century," says Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, Executive Director of Global Footprint Network, The question is a primary focus of this year's Living Planet Report.

Report: US Government needs plan for oil peak The U.S. government is in need of a strategy to minimize potentially dire economic consequences after worldwide oil production peaks and begins to decline, the investigative arm of Congress said Thursday.


Jan 2007

Oil at $35? Many have said, including myself, that when we approach peak oil we will see oil prices accelerating upwards. The recent decline in oil prices has come as a shock to many of the peak oil analysts, but is not all that surprising. The problem with oil prices is that they are in no way a reflection of the medium and long term supply and demand fundamentals. Oil prices are largely determined by speculation (the illiquid barrel) and Wall Street can only look ahead a few months, maybe a year at most, and so they base their 'wisdom' on a mild winter, hurricane activity and arbitrary predictions in demand. As long as there is spare capacity in the world, even if it is close to zero, oil prices could fluctuate wildly, with actual demand and supply setting a price floor. Unfortunately, lower oil prices fail to provide the much needed confirmation for many that peak oil is as real as death and taxes, and business-as-usual will carry on. It is almost like the calm before the storm, with the world keeping and accelerating its momentum and setting ourselves up for an even deeper crisis once we do run out of spare capacity and we approach the relentless slope on the other side of the curve. 

Where to live when the Peak Oil Crisis unfolds Very interesting article discussing the advantages and disadvantages of living near a city or living in isolation before and during a Peak Oil Crisis. 

Indeed, only a very few will succeed - under the best of circumstances - in a self sufficient lifestyle in an isolated retreat. Halfway measures won't do, but we do not really know what the full measures are, and in this lies the paradox. The self-sufficient strategy relies on some very extensive and informed planning, requiring man-on-the-moon skills, with a large dosage of luck. Your success will probably depend on remaining undiscovered, and the hardships placed upon you and your family will be unprecedented, and that is just one aspect.

One of the most popular peak oil websites recently published some very extensive 'disaster preparation' plans in a series. It is difficult to understand for me why someone that appears to understand Peak Oil so well decided to put these articles on his website, when these preparations all have severely limited value in the real world of Peak Oil. All of these plans were based on having to survive for between 2-10 days or so in case of hurricanes, earthquakes, virus outbreaks etc. In other words, once the threat subsides and rebuilding work starts, life goes on again, and everyone will get back again on their feet, unlike Peak Oil. Another published article on the same website seemed to encourage everyone to pack a backpack and venture out, giving a (false) romantic impression that during the future crisis we will live like nomads, venturing out into the 'open' and running into other like-minded survivalists / backpackers, who will point us in the right direction of a friendly farmer in the next village before they make their separate ways, while singing the sound-of-music songs. I could hardly imagine such a scenario, and just the thought of being on the road for many years or even months - especially with a family-, not knowing what danger is around the next corner, while being hungry and cold, just doesn't seem like a life worth living. Admittedly, it is difficult to come up with a strategy that has a good chance of success and will fit most scenarios, as the scope and timing of the crisis are unknown, but there must be something better than that. After two years of study on the subject, my conclusion remains that we need to be in or migrate to a small community (not the suburb type of community where you can leave your doors unlocked and help out your neighbors by buying their kid's scout cookies), preferably in a part of the world that will be relatively immune to the consequences of peak oil....God bless.


Dec 2006

Peak Oil Survival / Solutions Some excellent ideas here. As far as debt and mortgages are concerned, many believe the best thing to do is pay them off more quickly. However, one must realize that even during a severe crisis, banks and financial institutions will continue to exist for a while and if you cannot make your mortgage payments - even if you only have a year left on it - you will loose the house. This is exactly what happened during the Great Depression. So my advice is to either have a fixed rate 100% mortgage (or close to it) with no or little capital repayments, and sufficient cash to keep payments up, or have no mortgage. Nothing in between. Equally important is to know whether your house is in the right place to start with. No point in having your city apartment mortgage paid off when its value will be reduced to anywhere between null and zero....

Living more simply and sustainably The Mucuxi people are a prime example of how a group can live simply and sustainably and they appear sufficiently isolated geographically to perhaps remain immune to a peak oil crisis. Perhaps we can learn a great deal from them.


Nov 2006

Sneak Preview of a Post Oil Era The majority of us will struggle even trying to imagine what life will be like after transitioning to a post oil era. Without our everyday luxuries and conveniences, just trying to survive will be one of the hardest realities we will have to cope with. It may not be all that bad though........

This link has some very interesting previews of an episode of Worlds Apart. Stripped of their material possessions and hectic schedules, the Palmer family find themselves undergoing a dramatic transformation while developing deep bonds and respect for  people whose drastically different lifestyle can trace its roots back thousands of years. Especially the preview 'Saying Goodbye' is touching and sheds a different light onto Peak Oil Survival.

NDVI as an Indicator of Drought for Strategic Relocation purposes Satellite remote sensors can quantify what fraction of the photosynthetically active radiation is absorbed by vegetation. The NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) value can be averaged over time to establish the "normal" growing conditions for the vegetation in a given region for a given time of the year and can be used to characterize the health of the vegetation there, relative to the norm.

Researchers at NASA and NOAA have two decades of NDVI data over the entire globe. Comparing this month’s or this year’s NDVI data with the 20-year average reveals whether the productivity in a given region is typical, or whether the plant growth is significantly more or less productive. Periods of reduced plant growth are due to a lack of precipitation or exceptionally cold temperatures (which can delay or cut short the growing season) and clouds.


Oct 2006

Bush's alleged 100,000 acre hideway in Paraguay Is President Bush preparing robustly for a Post-Oil Era? Paraguay happened to rank in the top 35 countries of desirability in my Peak Oil Survival Guide, based on arable land per capita, energy self sufficiency (100%), while the country has one of the largest underground water reserves (Guarani Aquifer). 

Map of Tranquility in England. This map of England is a very interesting one from a Peak Oil Survival point of view, for those focusing on this part of the world. The top five elements of tranquility used for the map were a natural landscape, birdsong, the ability to experience peace and quiet, woodland and seeing the stars. It is not difficult to see the parallel with Peak Oil Strategic Relocation.  

Oil Price to stay between $50-$75 (PDF file) into 2007 Thorough analysis from Peak Oil Organization Netherlands, showing peak date beyond 2012.

Amish show how the modern world has forgotten ancient virtues It is very easy to see the relevance of this article with peak oil. The way of life of the Amish is admirable and they will be best prepared for a post-oil era.

World moves into ecological overdraft today Humanity slides into the red today and begins racking up an ecological overdraft driven by unsustainable exploitation of the world's resources, according to a report by the sustainable development organisation Global Footprint Network. For North Americans the "ecological footprint" - the land and water a person needs to sustain their lifestyle - is 9.6 hectares (23.7 acres). For the typical African it is 1.4 hectares. 

China Imports 95.8 million tons of crude in first 8 months

Richard Heinberg talks about Peak Oil (video)

It starts to look like a plateau Data from EIA shows that the world supplies of oil were down with an average of 0,18 Mb/d for the 7 first months of 2006 relative to the same period of 2005, and that the supplies of regular oil and lease condensate so far still had a top back in December 2005.

UK to become net energy importer by 2007

Runaway costs imperil Canada's Oil Sands hopes 


Sep 2006

Preparing for a crash Some excellent ideas and views on Peak Oil Survival

Peak Oil in 2008? 

Iran warns of oil price hike if sanctions imposed

Nigeria, China sign agreement on ethanol production


Aug 2006

Soaring Natural Resource Prices

Oil Sands: Burning Energy to Produce it


July 2006

Tracking Crude Oil Flows

ASPO Conference 5 ITALY Notes from the ASPO July conference in Rimini. 

Peak Oil and Aviation ASPO and Dr Colin Campbell have been so kind as to support the article I wrote for an international Aviation magazine and refer to it in their ASPO June Newsletter. Email me if you wish to have a PDF copy of this article.  

Oil industry hits peak production Leading expert Bakhtiari has warned that the oil industry is reaching peak production. Perhaps many of the peak date predictions have all been too conservative and we are in the first phase of the transition to an uncertain future. 


June 2006

Clinton acknowledges Peak Oil

Air Transport Association to tackle oil price challenge at annual meeting

Assessing offer to Iran

No techo-fixed for Peak Oil


May 2006

Iran will replace dollar for euro as oil currency

Energy costs, competition, financial woes reshaping airline industry 

Chavez to offer oil to Europe's poor

Venezuela: A sudden plunge in production 

A Battle for oil could set the world aflame

Fuel, Fertilizer prices expected to keep climbing


April 2006

Peak Oil on our doorsteps Evidence is emerging that global oil production is about to peak

China Death Threat for Oil theft! That just about sums up the world's insane addiction to oil

Branson to put $400 million into making bio-fuels

Peak Oil and Investments

New York City best place to be when oil hits $100 Cities with an excellent transportation system in place are attractive when according to a survey. But be aware, in the medium or long term, you are probably best off far away from population concentrations. 


March 2006

Can Peak Oil make you rich? Does it matter? 

US Spends its ways to 28 Eiffel Towers: made out of pure gold

The US - Venezuela Energy Showdown 

The Peak Oil Crisis: Rationing by Price

CNN Documentary on Oil Crisis

NY Times: Peak Oil almost certainly correct 

China and India to test oil demand with price reform  China & India consumers will start to suffer as government announces phasing out of fuel subsidies due to high prices. 


February 2006

World Oil Peak Passed on 16 December 2005: watch the crisis unfold Don't be fooled by a temporary lull in oil price rises. The longer an event fails to happen, the easier it is to assume it is not, while odds of occurrence rise (S.Marner).

James Lovelock: It is too late to save civilization as we know it. 

Chaves threatens to cut off oil exports to US

Peak Oil Newsletter 1st Quarter 2006 (PDF)

Is there a cure for oil addiction?

Bush says US must kick oil habit US government has drawn up plans to break foreign oil dependency, but it's probably too little too late. 

Bush bangs out hollow message on an oil can 

US Savings rate sinks to lowest rate since the Great Depression This key economic indicator, in combination with high oil prices and inflation, may be the first sign that of real trouble ahead. 


January 2006

Ready for $262 a barrel? Conclusion of some of the world's most successful investors

Spoonful of Methanol will help the world go around Japanese scientists have revealed a revolutionary fuel cell that will transform the the global effort to commercialize these cells. However, there are serious doubts about the rate at which the technology can be commercialized, and realistically this is still 20 years away, which once again shows that nothing can replace fossil fuels in time at the scale required to avert a very deep global crisis. 

DARK SECRET: What they don't want you to know about the coming Oil Crisis Peak Oil is hitting the mainstream, which is a disturbing & chilling reality check. Highly regarded British national newspaper the Independent has today issued an Extra report stating that it's time to face the fact that the supplies we so depend on are going to run out. It says:

"The most basic of foundations of our assumption of future economic well-being is rotten. Our society is in a state of collective denial that has no precedent in history

Oil Prices may hit $100 within near-future

The Year ahead, by Jim Kunstler 

ASPO January letter (PDF)

Grid Alert in Britain



Profound shift in global energy system 

A Risk of Total Collapse It is a genuine possibility

Saudi plans $26 billion 'economic city' This project is part of Saudi's effort to take advantage of the new oil boom

CNN covers Peak Oil

Rep. offers 'Man on the Moon' problem solving to combat oil decline

Where's the Oil Money?

ASPO December Newsletter (pdf) 

Peak Oil discussed in Washington DC

Concerns over Indian Oil Output

Britain considering re-opening mines to avert energy crisis

Cold Snap hits gas prices  

Chavez offers cheap oil to poor Americans Once again, Venezuela's president seems to be ahead of the game

Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil  An incredible revelation by the Kuwait Oil Company

Peak Oil War: A World Peace Story From the American Thinktank Community Solution (PDF file)

The Coming Crisis and the Decline of Aviation Article I have written for one of the biggest aviation sites in the world

Why Silver could be the new Gold The Sunday Times underlines my recommendations found in the Peak Oil Survival Guide

ASPO November Newsletter (PDF) President Hugo Chavez is probably the only country leader that has a plan 'B' for Venezuela!

South Africa banks on new family of Nuclear Reactors 

Peak Oil Crisis: We must prepare now (Richard Heinberg)

Warning as world faces $17 trillion energy bill

"Facing the Challenge"  The full presentations from the Energy Institute's conference 'Oil Depletion

World's oil running out

Cars running on Biodiesel mix by 2010

Soaring price of gold predicts bout of carnage in bond markets

Surviving the City

Zambia: Riot police confront anger over fuel crisis

Peak Oil Crisis: Waiting for Winter

Energy Policy or Disaster

Doubt raised on Saudi Ability to pump more oil

The Five Minute Guide: Oil

Does Peak Oil Signal the End?

Return of the three-day week

China Crisis At current trends,  the Chinese would require 99 million barrels a day by 2031 (current world production is 84 bpd)

Waiting for the lights to go out The Sunday Times raises the possibility of a new Dark Age 

There is no 'Plan B'

Has Oil Production Peaked? (USAtoday)

The Peak Oil Problem: Running out sooner than we think

Peak Oil Hollywood Movie

PetroCollapse New York Conference

Peak in 2015

America gets wake up call to turn off the lights

The Coming Oil Crisis (Forbes)

Rita causes record damage to oil rigs

China looks at $24bn coal-to-oil plan 

Project delays 'drive up oil prices'

$380 Oil? Banks talk Oil Decline

Peak Oil Crisis: The first casualty

IMF warns of global risk as oil price nears record 

Cut in R&D spending poses threat to world oil supplies

The failed war for oil

Britain risks catastrophe if it remains dependent on Middle East oil

Branson to build refinery: Virgin Oil

Fuel price increases as serious as 1970's

UK facing power black outs this winter

Talk of Oil Decline moving into Mainstream

Oil Could Surge to $200

Oil, Housing worries threaten American Dream

Peak Oil Crisis

Oil May climb to $500 within 6 months

A Fit of (Oil) Peak 

Central America on maximum alert due to Oil Crisis


Other news & resources


Breaking Point


Rising energy prices outstrip capacity of users to absorb them in consumer charges


Has Production Peaked? (BBC)


Oil and Conflict - A natural mix


Experts debate 'peak oil' 


Oil: Is the End at hand? (CNN)


Peaking Out


Analysts fear crisis in three years


Experts hear Oil Depletion fear


Crude Awakening


The coming economic depression